Data speaks, but the truth needs to be decoded! The U.S. housing market has completely collapsed! The countdown for a surge in the crypto market has begun.
First, let's look at the core indicators of the real estate market: The actual value of the July existing home sales month-on-month change is -0.05% (originally reported as -0.80%), still below the expected -0.1%; the annual rate has been revised to -0.15% (originally reported as -0.30%), and the sales index remains at 72. Now let's look at the energy market: The EIA natural gas inventory for the week has been revised to 18 billion cubic feet (originally reported as 13), still significantly below the expected 26.
My assessment is: Although the real estate data has been revised upwards, it still shows weakness, which may weaken the attractiveness of the dollar and push funds to seek crypto assets as a safe haven; although the natural gas inventory is higher than the initial value, the supply-demand gap still exists, which may exacerbate inflation resilience. A typical case: After the revision of natural gas inventory in September 2022, BTC surged 18% that week against the trend, indicating a hidden correlation between energy volatility and digital currencies.
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