The Federal Reserve's "Economic Health Report" is about to be released! Will the crypto market face a critical turning point?

Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the United States will announce two major economic data points: initial jobless claims and the revised GDP for the second quarter. These two key indicators, referred to by Wall Street as the "Economic Health Report," may directly influence the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy direction, thereby impacting the crypto market.

First, let's look at the job market indicator: as of the week ending August 23, initial jobless claims were 235,000, and the current forecast is 230,000. This seemingly small decrease of 5,000 hides significant clues; if the actual data meets expectations, it will confirm that the U.S. job market remains resilient, but growth is showing signs of slowing down.

More noteworthy is the revised GDP for the second quarter, which is expected to be revised up from the previous value of 3% to 3.1%, revealing the possibility of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy. It is important to note that since the beginning of this year, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks has dropped to a historical low. The volatility in traditional markets caused by economic data may instead catalyze an independent market for crypto.

For retail investors, it is crucial to pay attention to three key signals:

If jobless claims are below 230,000, it indicates that the job market is stronger than expected, which may suppress interest rate cut expectations in the short term, but long-term economic resilience will support confidence in the crypto market;

If the GDP revision exceeds expectations, one must be wary of the possibility of the Federal Reserve adopting a "hawkish pause," meaning maintaining high interest rates for a longer time, which could raise concerns about tightening market liquidity;

If the two data points combine to form a scenario of "slowing employment + stable economy," it may give rise to a "golden girl economy" scenario, which is precisely the moderate growth environment that crypto assets favor the most.

After the data release tonight, Ethereum's performance in the $4,500-$4,650 range will be particularly critical. If it can stay above the $4,650 mark, along with rising expectations for interest rate cuts, a technical rebound may be on the horizon.

Economic data is like a weather forecast for the crypto market; it cannot determine the trend, but it can predict the direction. In this era of uncertainty, maintaining rational observation will enable one to steer the ship steadily through the digital waves.

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