826 ETH Market Analysis
ETH
Re-tested the previous top-bottom conversion position, which is also a dense area of chips. Bulls need to pay attention to whether they can stabilize in the short term here and execute a rebound repair. If it breaks down, look towards the 4200-4150 range.
This wave of decline hit the densest area of chips, which is also the previous consolidation range. This round has completely retraced the rise due to interest rate cut expectations. Bulls chasing high either face liquidation or deep entrapment.
Expectations have turned into negative news, effectively speculating on expectations and selling reality. Therefore, this kind of market triggered by news should not be easily chased for highs or lows; it is more important to return to the market structure and capital flow for decision-making.
The logic for shorting: Bitcoin itself is weak, with a short-term downtrend. After Ethereum hit a historical high, it experienced a false breakout followed by a significant pullback, with capital flowing out dramatically. Thus, consider the overall market trend, news landing expectations, and capital flow.
Currently, the market has returned to the chip area, with some funds that missed out continuing to buy. The downward chips above are all resistance. Currently, view it from a fluctuation perspective, prioritizing short positions.
Whether going long or short, one must wait for the market to meet expectations before entering. Trend trading seeks to win steadily.
The current market shows a "strong ETH - weak BTC" divergence pattern. Whether BTC can hold the $110,000 mark becomes a key short-term indicator for bulls and bears. If it stabilizes at this support, it is expected to see a catch-up rally led by ETH; once it loses this support, further dips to $105,000 or even lower cannot be ruled out. However, deep corrections during a bull market are normal, and there is no need for excessive panic. The key still lies in the chip support situation below. Ethereum and altcoins have dropped more than expected, and the 4100-4200 range may form a good buying point. On the macro front, Trump's attempt to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has been labeled as "blatant extortion," and policy gaming continues to affect market sentiment.
ETH's 1-hour and 4-hour levels are below the healthy range, while the daily level has returned to the healthy range.
Expectations for the day keep consolidation.
Intra-day support at 4300-4350.
Resistance above at 4550-4600$BTC
