#ETH创历史新高 $BTC $ETH According to the first principle, I will think fundamentally about what the deciding factors of ETH price are. This thing is not like stocks where you can look at financial reports, nor is it like bonds where you can analyze from a macroeconomic perspective. Don't bring up what TVL supports the current market price, because TVL can only judge the rationality of the current market price based on past data and cannot support the market price in reverse. So what exactly determines the price of ETH?
Let’s boldly speculate, it is a kind of network consensus completely based on empirical and emotional accumulation, simply put, it is 'I feel ETH' should be worth this much.
So whose power determines this consensus? I believe it is 'time.' I ask you, in the past five years, in which price range has ETH been most common? Although you haven't done any statistics, I guess you would say around 2000 to 3000. You see, this is a consensus based on feeling.
In the past five years, the price range of 2000 to 3000 has accumulated around 500 days, accounting for about 30% of the time. The 4000 yuan range has only been less than 150 days, accounting for about 7%. Now the market price of 4800 is even more severely deviating from statistical outliers. This is the price consensus model that ETH has formed over the past five years. 1000 is the bottom, 2000 is the normal value, 3000 is the game, and 4000 is the top. There is no logical support; it's just what everyone feels.
So let's first assume, what should Ethereum do to break the current network consensus? In fact, there's no need to guess, as there is a great teacher setting an example, which is BTC. To be honest, I personally believe that there is no need for two Bitcoins. Whether ETH is suitable to follow the path of BTC is a big question mark for me. I even less believe that Ethereum can surpass BTC and do better than BTC. However, let's take a look at how BTC has improved its network consensus.
From a daily chart perspective, we can see that BTC each time breaks into a non-network price consensus area at the top of a major cycle, does not just attack upwards blindly. Instead, it oscillates and retracts to the median of the top formation and consensus price area, supported by the daily MA in the larger cycle, consolidating and moving upward. This allows the market to slowly accept the objective fact that the price consensus has changed and risen. You might say BTC lacks strength and funds are not strong enough, but I believe BTC has done well enough.
If Ethereum wants to emulate BTC and change the price consensus range, it should not stubbornly push against the 5000 non-consensus price range. Instead, it should actively retract and use the 3000 range to replace the 2000 consensus, and then aim for the consensus peak of 6000.
Let me say something you might not want to hear, in the past five years, Ethereum has reached the top three times. Forget about changing the network consensus range; it couldn't even maintain a basic form. Why would you think it can bypass the BTC model and completely ignore network consensus while the price skyrockets?
In the end, the same saying applies, no matter how outrageous, foolish, or incredible it may seem, and no matter how low the probability is, we cannot assume that the probability of directly breaking through 5000 is zero. The purpose of writing this article is just to remind everyone not to be too stubborn. This article does not provide any investment advice.
