A few days ago, ETH's surge was still fresh: it jumped directly from 4200 on Monday and reached 4888 by Wednesday, with many people shouting 'to 5000'. Friends who trade short-term around me entered at 4300 and took profit at 4800, locking in a 500-point profit, and said 'I can relax this week.' But just two days later, the market got stuck between 4700-4800, and the trading volume over the weekend halved, shifting from 'to 5000' to 'wait for direction' and 'trial and error with small positions.'
But don’t think that sideways trading means 'not moving up' — this is actually a healthy signal. How many people made profits and wanted to run after a sudden surge of 680 points? It's like climbing a mountain and needing to catch your breath after a 200-meter ascent; now that it's consolidating around 4700, it's essentially 'digesting profit-taking': some are cashing out above 4800 while others are quietly accumulating at 4700. This 'hand-over' can wash away 'unstable chips' that are eager to take profits, leaving behind long-term funds. As long as the range stabilizes, it can accumulate strength, like a spring being compressed and then rebounding more forcefully, laying the foundation for a push to 5000.
Last November, ETH experienced a similar market: it rose from 3800 to 4500 and then consolidated at 4300-4400 for three days, with trading volume shrinking significantly over the weekend. Many people said 'it's at the top', but the following Monday, it broke through 4500 with high volume and surged to 4800. The current situation is very similar to that time; it just depends on whether it can replicate the 'surge after consolidation' pattern.
In the next two days, these two signals will directly determine the direction (to 5000 or down to 4500):
1. Strong consolidation signal (bullish)
If during the weekend's sideways trading, the trading volume continues to shrink (for example, Binance's hourly trading drops from 200 million to below 100 million), but the price remains stable above 4700 and does not break below 4680 — it indicates weak selling pressure, it's not 'not moving up', but rather 'the main players are suppressing prices to accumulate.'
I noticed while watching the market on Wednesday night: when the price dropped to 4720, suddenly there were three orders of 5 million U each, driving it back up to 4750, with low trading volume, it was clear 'no one wanted to sell.' In this case, it is very likely to push back to 4888 after the weekend, or even touch 5000 — after all, with a 680-point market movement, the main players won't just take this little profit and leave.
2. Breakout risk signal (bearish)
If there is a sudden drop in volume (with more than 300 million in half an hour) and the price falls below 4700, even dropping below 4650 — be wary of 'emotional reversal', it could be institutions offloading or short-term negative news.
There was a similar situation last September: ETH rose from 4200 to 4600 and then went sideways; over the weekend, it suddenly dropped to 4300 with high volume, later probing down to 4100. If it falls below 4700 this time, it could drop to 4500 (the upper edge of the previous consolidation zone), and risk must be avoided — liquidity is poor over the weekend, making stop losses difficult.
Corresponding strategy, beginners should not operate recklessly:
Short-term: Trade with light positions, avoid heavy positions. Stabilize on a pullback to 4700-4720 (not breaking 4700 for 5 minutes), take small positions for low buys (with a 10,000 U principal, invest a maximum of 500 U), stop loss at 4680; if it rebounds above 4850 with low volume (30% less hourly trading), trial short with a small position (around 300 U), target 4800, profit from fluctuations and exit. I entered a long position of 300 U at 4710 yesterday and took profit at 4780, earning 70 U, steady.
Medium-term: Wait for a clear direction before following, do not guess the top or bottom. If it breaks out with volume at 4888 (hourly trading exceeds 300 million and stabilizes), then increase the position; if it falls below 4700 and stabilizes around 4500 (with decreased volume), then look for opportunities. Friends who do medium-term trading, keep the 50,000 U principal unchanged for now, saying 'No trading over the weekend, wait until Monday to see the direction' — this mindset is correct.
Final reminder: Liquidity is poor over the weekend; a large order could drop 100 points before rebounding, don’t be fooled by 'false breakouts.' The key is not to get caught up in long or short, but to keep a close eye on the 4700 dividing line, hold your bullets, and wait for clear signals before taking action.
If you find it useful, pay attention to the market over the weekend; I will update promptly if there are new signals — whether ETH can surge to 5000 depends on how stable it is during these two days of sideways trading.
