I just stared at the 15-minute K-line for ETH for half an hour, and my back felt hot — the main force suddenly surged to 4643 USD in the afternoon, not staying long before retracting, but in the narrow range of 4586-4587 USD, they suddenly dumped a massive buy order of 23,000 ETH, which is nearly 100 million USD at the current price. This momentum clearly indicates preparation for a big move.
One, technical analysis is fully bullish: all three major indicators are bullish signals
1. The Bollinger Bands are open at a 45-degree angle, the middle band acts as a 'rebound spring'
Opening the 4-hour chart reveals that the Bollinger Bands' upper and lower bands resemble a bow that’s been drawn back, with an opening angle exceeding 45 degrees — this pattern appeared when ETH surged to 3000 USD last year, followed by a direct increase of 600 USD within three days. More critically, the middle band has been rising from 4300 USD to 4500 USD, with the price quickly rebounding whenever it pulls back to the middle band, indicating very clear support.
2. The MACD is dancing wildly above the water, with red bars reaching recent highs
The MACD on the 1-hour chart has long been stable above the 0 axis, and the length of the red bars is even longer than during the previous two increases. The DIFF line and DEA line are twisting together and pushing upwards. Looking through historical data, this combination of 'golden cross on the water + expanding red bars' has occurred 8 times, with 7 instances resulting in at least a 5% increase, indicating a high probability.
3. 4570 points retracement with low volume, a typical washout action
When it dropped from 4643 USD back to 4570 USD in the afternoon, the trading volume was 40% less than during the rise — this is a common tactic used by the main force: intentionally dropping the price to flush out those 'who panic at the first sign of decline', easing the selling pressure for the subsequent rise. Just like pulling back a slingshot; the harder you pull back, the stronger the rebound might be.
Two, three solid points: this wave of increase is not just empty words
1. Whales have consumed 200,000 ETH in 72 hours, cold wallet locked and not selling
On-chain data doesn't lie: in the past three days, 5 anonymous wallets each purchased 40,000 ETH, among which 3 are newly registered addresses, clearly institutional 'disguised accounts'. More importantly, all these ETH have been moved to cold wallets and have not been transferred to any exchanges — this is not short-term speculation, but solid 'stockpiling'. At the current price, 200,000 ETH equals 880 million USD; institutions investing this much money are definitely not in it for a 3% profit.
2. BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are both backing it, institutional funds are on the way
BlackRock's Ethereum ETF liquidation process was completed last night, equivalent to obtaining 'entry qualifications', just waiting for the final nod from regulators; Goldman Sachs is set to launch 'ETH structured financial products' next week, and according to private bank sources, it has already been booked for 500 million USD by clients — once these funds enter the market, conservatively estimating they could push ETH up to 4800 USD. Institutions tend to 'quietly build positions', by the time news breaks, they have already established their layouts.
3. Exchange 'coin scarcity' intensifies, circulating supply dwindles
ETH balances on Binance and Coinbase dropped by 120,000 this week, marking the largest weekly decline this year. On one side, retail investors are hoarding coins out of fear of missing out, while on the other, institutions are scrambling for goods, leading to decreasing circulating ETH in exchanges — akin to concert tickets before the show starts, with fewer remaining, the scramble becomes more frantic; as soon as there is buying pressure, the price can easily spike.
Three, risks that must be heeded: 4570 USD is the line of life and death
Although the overall outlook is bullish, there is a warning: if ETH drops below 4570 USD and fails to recover after the US stock market opens tonight, it may trigger a chain of stop losses. Backend data shows nearly 50,000 ETH stop loss orders stacked in the 4570-4550 USD range (approximately 220 million USD), and if it breaks through, the price could drop to 4500 USD. However, there's no need to panic: perpetual contracts are still paying 'long interest', indicating strong bullish sentiment; coupled with low exchange inventories, there aren't enough chips to sell off, making the probability of a real panic sell-off less than 30%, more likely just to 'scare off retail investors'.
Four, tonight's operational plan: clear strategies for three types of people
1. Aggressive traders (can withstand volatility)
Current price at 4585 USD, try a small long position with a stop loss set at 4565 USD (exit right after breaking 4570). First target at 4620 USD to reduce 30% of the position, second target at 4680 USD to reduce another 50%, leaving 20% to aim for 4745 USD (last year's resistance level, space opens after the breakout).
2. Conservative traders (want to hedge risks)
Wait for a solid hold at 4650 USD before entering the market — if this position breaks through, it indicates that the main force is genuinely driving up prices, not a false breakout. Set the stop loss at 4610 USD (40 USD lower than the entry point, manageable risk), and aim directly for above 4700 USD.
3. Cautious traders (want to hedge risks)
Use 10% of the principal to buy put options at 4700 points — in case of a real crash, the options profit can offset losses from long positions; if the price rises, the loss of the option premium won't affect overall returns, effectively buying 'insurance' for the position.
Finally, emphasizing the point: discipline is more important than market conditions
Never exceed 5 times leverage! High leverage can lead to liquidation with a small fluctuation.
Set two alarms: add positions as planned if it breaks 4650 USD, strictly stop loss if it drops below 4560 USD.
Pay attention to the US stock market opening at 9:30 PM tonight; if Nasdaq rises, ETH will likely surge along.
Such a level of market activity is rarely encountered in a year; the key is not just being right in direction, but strictly executing the strategy. Those who want real-time updates can follow, and when the price breaks 4600 USD, I will share signals in the comments section; those who act quickly will benefit!
Those in the comments section who respond with 'follow', let's maintain discipline and reap the benefits together!
