I advise both the bulls and bears not to be too confident, as the current situation is unclear. Why must you be so stubborn, believing the situation is clear?
1. Who was responsible on August 22? It was Grayscale and BlackRock. Why? Because the ETF opened at 21:30, and 10 minutes later, it started to rise sharply; this is basically a clear signal.
2. The cost for large institutions to buy in bulk is too high, so prices have to rise. This is quite absurd. Because the funds that BlackRock raised on the 22nd were only half of what was raised on the 21st, this was a bottom-fishing rise. Moreover, it was a targeted strike against the bears; if A gets liquidated, it will lead to buying, resulting in price increases. As B gets liquidated again, it just keeps going up with fireworks; the institutions are only lighting the fuse and giving a little push. Their costs are not high. If institutions didn't buy in bulk six months ago and came to buy at the top of 5000, wouldn't you think Grayscale and BlackRock are a bit foolish?
3. Yesterday, August 24, the trading volume was very abnormal. Before the Americans woke up, the daily trading volume of ETH on Binance was in a state of extreme shrinkage, only 600 million. Yes, during the Asian session, no one was trading spot; this is a very important signal. I give you two options: A. Reluctant to sell. B. No one is interested in buying. It's clear from the market whether it's A or B. If the price is rising, it's reluctant to sell. If the price is falling, it’s that no one is interested in buying. The market during the Asian session shows a weak downward trend, and the sentiment is that the price is too high, with no one interested in buying.
4. The bulls in the U.S. are now panicking because they know what it means for market sentiment if it forms a bearish candle on August 25. I have previously categorized the patterns, and now for the bulls, apart from continuously burning cash to push higher, there is no way out. So around 21:00 on the 24th, the non-main force bull small troops began to forcibly attack 5000. They just encountered a 'Wall of Sighs' that they could not overcome. This wall is quite interesting; the closer you get to it, the thicker it becomes. By around 7 o'clock when I am writing this post, the daily candlestick has formed a doji. From the market perspective, the bulls' attack failed, resulting in heavy losses. But it seems there are no signs of giving up before the daily close at 8 o'clock.
5. Bears shouldn't be too quick to rejoice, thinking the situation is settled. If someone tells you in the next couple of days about a fierce battle between bulls and bears, you can directly block them. They don’t even understand the game rules; what are they arguing about? The attack on the 25th is from scattered soldiers. The main forces will enter the battlefield at 21:30 on the 25th; whether the ETF will take profits or continue the strong attack will only be determined tonight. You know, investing is not about being a great prophet; it’s about quickly reacting to the actual situation.
6. The bulls now have no way out except for continuously pushing higher. Sideways trading is a risk accumulation; the longer it stays sideways, the worse the market becomes. Each technical indicator breaking down will continuously tug at the market's nerves. No one can guarantee that this won’t turn into the last straw that breaks the camel's back.
7. I am not a die-hard bull nor a die-hard bear. The bulls draw a very novel line, and I am also prepared and will follow along. But in the current situation, if you say 5000, 8000, 20000, I can only laugh. Are you putting in money? If you're not putting in money, why are you so stubborn?
