The recent sharp rise is still fresh in memory: on Monday it surged directly from 4200, and by Wednesday it reached 4888. During this explosive rally of 680 points, many were shouting 'it’s going to 5000'. Friends of mine trading short-term entered at 4300, took profits at 4800, realizing 500 points of profit, and said 'I can relax this week'. But just two days later, the market got stuck in the 4700-4800 range, and the weekend volume was cut in half. The voices in the group changed from 'going to 5000' to 'waiting for direction' and 'small positions for trial and error'.
But don't think that sideways movement means 'no upward movement' — this is actually a healthy signal.
After a surge of 680 points, how many people want to run away with profits? It’s like climbing a mountain and needing to catch your breath after rushing 200 meters. The sideways movement around 4700 essentially means 'profit-taking': some are securing profits above 4800, while others are quietly buying around 4700. This kind of 'hand-off' can wash out the 'unstable hands' who panic after making some profit, leaving behind long-term capital. As long as this range stabilizes, it can actually build strength, like a compressed spring that will bounce back with greater force, laying the foundation for a rush to 5000.
Last November, ETH had a similar scenario: it rose from 3800 to 4500, then consolidated between 4300 and 4400 for three days, with trading volume shrinking severely over the weekend. Many said 'it's over', but on Monday it broke 4500 with increased volume and surged to 4800. The current situation resembles that time too closely, it’s just a matter of whether it can replicate the 'surge after consolidation' trend.
In the next two days, these two signals will directly determine the direction (rush to 5000 or drop to 4500):
1. Strong consolidation signal (bullish)
If during the weekend the market is sideways and the trading volume continues to shrink (for example, Binance's 1-hour trading volume drops from 200 million to below 100 million), but the price remains stable above 4700 and does not drop below 4680 on pullbacks — it indicates that selling pressure has weakened. It’s not that 'the price can't go up', but rather 'the main funds are holding and absorbing'.
I noticed signs while monitoring the market on Wednesday night: the price fell to 4720, and instantly there were three buy orders of 5 million USDT, pushing it back up to 4750. The trading volume was very low, clearly 'no one wanted to sell'. In this situation, after the weekend, it’s highly likely to push to 4888, or even touch 5000 — after all, for a 680-point market, the main funds can’t just take this little profit and leave.
2. Breakdown risk signal (bearish)
If there is a sudden increase in volume and the price drops below 4700, even down to below 4650 — be wary of an 'emotional reversal'. It could be institutions selling off, or it could be short-term bad news.
There was a similar situation last September: ETH rose from 4200 to 4600 and then consolidated. Suddenly, on the weekend, it fell to 4300, and later dropped to 4100. If it breaks below 4700 this time, it might test 4500 (the upper edge of the previous consolidation platform), risk must be avoided — liquidity is poor over the weekend, and it’s hard to stop-loss when it drops.
Corresponding strategy, beginners should avoid random operations:
Short-term: light positions for speculation, do not go heavy.
Weekend volatility can be large or small, don’t be greedy for 'big profits'.
If it pulls back to 4700-4720 and stabilizes (not dropping below 4700 for 5 minutes), you can buy small positions (with a capital of 10,000 USDT, invest a maximum of 500 USDT), stop-loss at 4680 (if it breaks, recognize the loss, don’t wait);
If it rebounds above 4850 without volume (1-hour trading volume is 30% less than the previous hour), you can try a small short position (around 300 USDT), target 4800, take the profit from the fluctuations and leave, don’t be greedy.
This is how I operated yesterday: bought a long position of 300 USDT at 4710, took profit at 4780, earning 70 USDT, steady; if I had waited for 4800, I wouldn’t have made a profit because it fell back to 4750.
Medium-term: wait for a clear direction before following, don’t guess tops or bottoms.
The safest approach is to wait for the consolidation to end:
If it breaks through 4888 with increased volume (1-hour trading volume exceeds 300 million, and stabilizes above it), add positions;
After breaking below 4700, if it stabilizes around 4500 (volume decreases, no further drops), then look for opportunities.
For my friends who trade on a medium-term basis, keeping 50,000 USDT as is, saying 'no trading this weekend, wait until Monday to see the direction' — this mindset is correct. Don’t randomly guess 'top or bottom', follow the main funds instead, it's more reliable than 'betting on direction'.
A final reminder: liquidity is poor over the weekend, a large order might crash 100 points before bouncing back, don’t be fooled by 'false breakouts' or 'false breakdowns'. The key now is not to get tangled up in bullish or bearish but to keep a close eye on the 4700 dividing line, hold your bullets, and wait for a clear trend signal before taking action.
If you find this useful, keep an eye on the market over the weekend. If there are new signals, I will update you in a timely manner — whether ETH can rush to 5000 depends on the stability of this sideways movement in the next two days, let’s wait for direction together.
