Brothers, were you confused by SOL's operation today? It clearly touched 211.99 dollars, just 1 cent away from breaking the previous high, but it directly plummeted to 204 dollars, causing many people's high buy orders to instantly incur losses, with messages in the backend asking, 'Is it not able to rise anymore?'
Don’t rush to panic! Brother Rui spent 3 hours analyzing on-chain data and discussed with 5 veterans in the circle to clarify the ins and outs of this matter — it’s not that it can’t rise; it’s the 'stuck positions + leveraged positions' causing the trouble; now keep a close eye on a support level, the upcoming opportunities are much greater than the risks.
One, just 1 cent shy of breaking 212 dollars? Uncovering the truth behind the 'rejection': two rounds of selling pressure pushed the price down.
Many people think SOL can't push past 212 dollars because it has 'no strength', but the on-chain data holds the answer: this retracement had signals long ago; it just depends on whether you’re paying attention to the details.
1. 212 dollars hides the 'stuck positions from last year'; 80 million U waiting to be freed.
Old fans know that SOL hovered around 210-212 dollars for almost half a month last year; how many people thought it could break the previous high? In the end, it dropped straight to 176 dollars, and the stuck positions held on for 3 months. Now the price touched 211.99 dollars, and this group of people finally got their 'break free opportunity.'
On-chain data is clear: the 210-212 dollar range has 80 million U waiting to be sold, equivalent to 800,000 SOL (based on 210 dollars), all are sell orders from last year's stuck positions. It's like planting a bomb; the closer the price gets, the more explosive it becomes.
Old Zhang from the fan group is a typical example. He bought 50 SOL at 211 dollars last year and has been staring at the market every day. In the morning, seeing 211.99 dollars, he sold immediately: 'Just 1 cent to break even? I’ll take it! Last year it dropped from 211 dollars to 176 dollars, waking up three times in the middle of the night; now I can break free, I’ll run regardless of whether it rises later.'
Not just Old Zhang; there’s also a post-00s guy in the group who chased at 212 dollars and has been saving money for milk tea ever since. Today, seeing 211.8 dollars, he sold directly, saying, 'Even if I lose 500 bucks, I don’t want to live in fear anymore.' This 'break free and run' mentality made 212 dollars an 'insurmountable hurdle'—just 1 cent shy of breaking it, sell orders surged like a tide, and it took just 5 minutes to smash the price down to 208 dollars.
2. Leverage is too full! High-leverage bulls are 'trampling each other'; 3 million U liquidated and smashed through 208 dollars.
What's even worse is that 'leveraged positions' are causing chaos.
When it surged to 212 dollars in the morning, Brother Rui was shocked by the Binance perpetual contract data: the funding rate soared to 0.07%! What does this mean? It’s equivalent to you opening a 10,000 U long position and having to pay an extra 7 U 'interest' daily, which is three times higher than usual. Moreover, long positions above 210 dollars increased by 40% compared to usual, all are people who want to 'bet on breaking the previous high' adding 3-5 times leverage.
Old Wang from the quant circle told me in the morning: 'This leverage is too crazy; I reduced my position by half in the morning. Think about it, so many people added leverage to bet on a rise; once the price retraces, the exchange will forcibly close positions, and bulls will crush themselves. This is called 'bull killing bull', and it’s harsher than a short-seller crashing the market.'
Sure enough, when the price dropped from 210 dollars to 208 dollars, in just 5 minutes, 3 million U long positions were liquidated (equivalent to 15,000 SOL being forcibly closed), these liquidation orders directly smashed the price through 208 dollars, all the way down to 204 dollars. Many newbies do not understand leverage risks; those who chased 210 dollars with 10 times leverage and saw it drop to 204 dollars were liquidated, losing all their capital and even owing money to the platform, which is too unfortunate.
Two, keep a close eye on 202-204 dollars! This is SOL's 'life and death line'; if it holds, there will be three big profits.
Although it dropped to 204 dollars, Brother Rui dares to say: the overall bullish trend has not broken! The most critical thing now is the support zone of 202-204 dollars; if it holds, it is an opportunity to 'make money'; if it breaks, that’s when you should really panic.
1. 202-204 dollars is the 'institution takeover zone'; 150 million U buy orders are supporting the bottom.
Why can 204 dollars hold steady? It's not a coincidence.
On-chain address tracking shows: there are 150 million U buy orders piled in the 202-204 dollar range, with 60% coming from institutional addresses — including Circle’s reserve account (the one that issues USDC) and wallets from two overseas crypto funds. This is real money bottoming out.
When it dropped to 204.87 dollars yesterday, these institutional addresses suddenly took action, buying 20 million U worth of tokens within 10 minutes, which directly pulled the price back to 206 dollars. Veteran Zheng said it clearly: '202 dollars is not only an institutional takeover zone, but also the 20-day EMA support line — after breaking 200 dollars last week, this line has been supporting the price rise; it only counts as a trend weakening if it breaks, and if it doesn’t, it’s still a bull market.'
2. Maintain support; the three target levels are clear, with the first wave right in front of us.
If 202-204 dollars holds steady, the next targets are clear; Brother Rui will mark them out for you:
TP1: 210 dollars - The 'gap' left by selling pressure in the morning; the selling pressure here is low (the stuck positions have mostly cleared out between 210-212 dollars), it can easily rebound, and it is likely to touch it this afternoon.
TP2: 216 dollars - After breaking the previous high of 212 dollars, the next resistance level is here. Why 216? Looking at the weekly chart, it rose from 176 dollars to 212 dollars, which is a 36 dollar increase. Based on trend continuation, it is reasonable to rise another 4 dollars to 216 dollars.
TP3: 222 dollars - This is the target of 'volume and price rising together'. Recently, SOL's daily trading volume has stabilized above 1.5 billion U. As long as it breaks through 216 dollars with volume, based on the height of the rising pattern calculated at 2 times, 222 dollars is inevitable.
Brother Rui himself has already entered some long positions at 205 dollars, with a stop-loss set at 200 dollars (if it breaks, accept the loss and don’t hold the position), aiming first at 210 dollars, and when it touches, reduce half of the position. This 'buy low + staggered take-profit' method means that even if it retraces again, there’s no panic.
Three, how to operate now? Two sets of strategies that even newbies can copy (with a pitfall avoidance guide).
After the retracement to 204 dollars, it’s not about 'closing your eyes to buy'; you need to follow the support levels. Especially for those who chased high and got stuck, don’t chop meat randomly; understand the strategy before acting.
1. For those who haven’t entered the market yet: buy low at 203-205 dollars; stop if it breaks 202 dollars.
Timing to enter: wait for a retracement to 203-205 dollars, and ensure the 5-minute chart no longer creates new lows (for example, if it drops to 203.5 dollars and starts rebounding, no longer touching 203 dollars), then enter with a light position. Don’t be greedy; with a capital of 10,000 U, invest at most 500 U (5% position), newbies should never exceed that.
Stop-loss setting: Keep a close eye on 200 dollars! This is the last safety line; if it breaks, it means the institution may have withdrawn, so directly stop-loss and exit without hoping for a rebound.
Take-profit rhythm: Reduce 30% when touching 210 dollars, reduce 50% at 216 dollars, and watch the remaining 20% at 222 dollars. Even if it drops afterwards, most of the profit can be preserved.
Old Zheng entered 200 U at 205 dollars yesterday and just told me: 'Now buying low is 10 times safer than chasing high. 203-205 dollars is the institutional takeover zone; even if there’s a short-term retracement, it’ll only drop to 200 dollars, losing 5 dollars; but if it rises, you can see 210 dollars and earn 5 dollars, which is a reasonable risk-reward ratio.'
2. For those caught in high buys: 202 dollars is the 'stop-loss line'; don't hold on stubbornly!
For those stuck above 210 dollars: set your stop-loss at 202 dollars. If it drops to 202 dollars without rebounding, decisively reduce half of your position — don’t wait until it drops to 198 dollars and you’re deeply stuck; by then, you won’t even have the heart to sell. Brother Rui has seen too many people holding on from a floating loss of 5% to 20%, simply because they’re reluctant to sell.
For those stuck at 206-210 dollars: don’t panic; 204 dollars is already a support level. Wait for it to rebound to 210 dollars before reducing your position. For example, if you’re stuck at 208 dollars, a rebound to 210 dollars can earn you 2 dollars; even if you earn a little less, it’s better than selling at 204 dollars.
Absolutely don’t do this: don’t sell at 204 dollars! This is now a support level, and selling here might mean you're selling at the 'floor price'. Little Wang in the group sold at 205 dollars this morning, and now it’s risen to 206 dollars, regretting it after hitting his thigh; such losses are unnecessary.
The last piece of hard truth: if the support breaks, accept defeat and don’t go against the trend.
Brother Rui knows many people are hoping for SOL to rise, but trading has rules: if it really breaks 202 dollars and the one-hour trading volume exceeds 300 million U (indicating large funds are fleeing), you must decisively switch to short, with the initial target at 198 dollars.
Last year when SOL fell below 200 dollars, how many people stubbornly held on? From 200 dollars to 176 dollars, losing 12% before they sold. Why bother? There are plenty of opportunities to make money in the crypto world; preserving capital is more important than anything.
For those who want to follow Brother Rui for real-time data and discuss operation details, click on the profile to follow. Every day at 8 AM and 8 PM, I share on-chain dynamics and real trading ideas in the fan group. Newbies can avoid pitfalls, and experienced traders can exchange ideas — the more people involved, the more certainty in making profits.
Let me ask one last question: do you think SOL can hold 204 dollars? Let’s discuss in the comments; I'll draw three brothers to send (SOL short-term trend analysis chart), results will be announced at 5 PM.#solana
