Stop criticizing DOT/FIL! The weekly W bottom has appeared; if you're trapped, just wait a bit longer; spring is coming.
Recently, in crypto groups, about eight out of ten comments criticize DOT and FIL: 'Holding DOT is less stable than stablecoins; it just keeps falling,' 'FIL fell from $200 to $4, will it ever recover?' Even veteran investors are complaining about 'it being in the trash heap.'
But I looked at the weekly charts for these two and found a signal overshadowed by criticism — DOT and FIL have quietly formed a 'W bottom'! Those who understand technicals know that a 'W bottom' is a typical reversal signal, just like a spring compressed to the bottom that can't fall any further, the rebound strength may exceed expectations. Today, without exaggerating or downplaying, let’s talk to those who are trapped: don't rush to sell, wait a bit longer; there might be a turnaround.
First, understand: What is a W bottom? The signals for these two coins are very clear.
To explain simply to beginners: a 'W bottom' is when the coin price falls to a bottom, rebounds slightly, then retraces to a similar low point, and rebounds again, forming two 'bottoms' shaped like a 'W' — indicating there is buying support below, suggesting a rebound is coming.
Look at DOT:
In 2022, it dropped from $55 to $2.8, rebounded to $6, then retraced to around $3, and now fluctuates between $3 and $3.5 — the two low points ($2.8 and $3) are almost equal, and the W-shaped bottom is very obvious! In the past few weeks, the weekly trading volume has been increasing, and funds are quietly buying in, unlike before when it would just drop after a sell-off.
Look at FIL:
More clearly! From $238 in 2021 to $3.2 in 2023, rebounding to $6, then retracing to around $4, now fluctuating between $4 and $4.5 — the two low points ($3.2 and $4) are not far apart, and the weekly W bottom is taking shape! Moreover, the selling pressure has decreased: previously there were 500,000 unlocks and sell-offs daily, now down to 300,000, making the rebound resistance much lower.
Friends who do technical analysis told me: 'Weekly W bottoms are rarely deceptive; this is a signal of a major cycle reversal. DOT and FIL have been falling for so long, the trapped positions have almost been cut; once they break the neckline (both DOT and FIL are $6), the rebound space will be at least over 50%.
Second, criticisms aside, the bottoms for these two coins are more stable than many altcoins.
Some say these two are 'not as stable as stablecoins', but being able to hold steady at $3-4 without going to zero shows there is support.
DOT:
Although the ecosystem is not as expected, Polkadot's cross-chain technology is still there; when Layer 2 is hot, the parachain architecture can meet cross-chain needs. Moreover, Polkadot's treasury still has over 10 million DOT (about $300 million), and when the market comes, funds can support several good projects, and the ecosystem can thrive. Recent on-chain data shows that developers are still active, with over 200 code submissions per month, and they haven't run away.
FIL:
It is the big brother of the storage sector; AI and NFTs all need storage, and distributed storage technology has real demand, which was tarnished by previous mining scams. Recently, overseas communities are promoting the 'real storage' plan to let NFTs store images and AI store training data, with small projects already testing it; if it succeeds, the value of $4 will seem low.
More importantly, market cap: DOT is now $15 billion, FIL is $2 billion, both are among the top 20 mainstream coins. When a bull market comes, funds will first lift the mainstream coins, not the ones without market cap — even the worst mainstream coins in 2021 rebounded more than ten times, very few stayed flat.
Three, don't panic if you're trapped! Just pay attention to these three signals.
Many family members have been trapped for a long time, hesitating to sell, afraid it will drop further. There's no need to rush; just look at these signals.
Breaking the neckline: If DOT/FIL breaks $6, the rebound begins.
The key to the W bottom is breaking the neckline; the necklines for DOT and FIL are both $6. As long as the weekly chart can hold above $6 and has increased volume, it means big funds are entering, and the rebound can be sustained. My friend bought ETH based on this signal in 2020 for $1200, and it rose to $4800, making three times the profit.
Trading volume is increasing: DOT over $100 million, FIL over $5 million.
Currently, DOT's daily trading volume is less than $50 million, and FIL is under $3 million. If one day it suddenly jumps to DOT over $100 million and FIL over $5 million, and continues for several days, that means funds are buying — funds are the fuel for the market; without fuel, it can't rise.
There is movement in the ecosystem: good projects are being realized.
If DOT has Layer 2 projects launched on the parachain, or if treasury-supported projects become popular; if FIL has NFT/AI using it for data storage, then the ecosystem is alive, and the coin price has support, not just random increases.
Lastly, let me be honest.
Don't sell at dawn, and don't blindly try to catch the bottom. If you don't own these two coins, wait until they break the neckline and funds come in to buy; if you're already trapped, don't sell at the low of $3-4, wait a bit longer, and you might catch a rebound.
My follower bought DOT at $15 in 2022, fell to $3 and almost sold, but is still holding: 'Since I've lost so much, I'll wait for it to rise to $6 to reduce my losses by half, and if it goes to $10, maybe I'll break even.'
It's darkest before dawn in the crypto world; DOT and FIL have been falling for so long, the W bottom has formed, and spring may not be far off. Those who are trapped should hold on a bit longer and not sell at the bottom.
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