Let me analyze briefly
✅ Conclusion first
• Short-term weak fluctuations: Currently priced at 4774, above EMA25 (4771), but below EMA7 (4781) → Short-term pressure.
• MACD death cross: DIF < DEA, green bars appear, indicating weakening momentum.
• RSI (6≈45) < 50, RSI (12≈50), RSI (24≈53) → Short-term weak, mid-term neutral to strong.
• Trading volume significantly shrinks (22.5K < MA5/MA10) → No strong breakthrough support.
Overall: Short-term may retest to confirm support; if volume is insufficient, it is easier to fluctuate within a range or have a slight pullback.
⸻
📌 Key Levels (Priority)
Resistance:
• ① 4780–4785 (EMA7 + short-term pressure level)
• ② 4816–4821 (intraday high area)
• ③ 4850 (round number + previous high)
Support:
• ① 4770–4771 (EMA25)
• ② 4740–4750 (area confirmed multiple times)
• ③ 4728 (EMA99, strong support at a larger scale)
• ④ 4709 → 4681 → 4650 (downward defense zone)
⸻
📈 Scenario Trends
A. Weak fluctuation and pullback (high probability)
• Trigger condition: Break below 4770 and close below for 15m;
• Target: 4740–4750 → 4728.
• Risk: If 4728 is broken with volume, it may extend to 4709–4680.
B. Range fluctuations (next high probability)
• Range: 4740–4785 consolidating horizontally;
• Strategy: Sell high and buy low, operate at the edges, reduce intervention in the middle.
C. Breakout upward (low probability, requires volume)
• Condition: Volume expands ≥ MA10 and price closes above 4785;
• Target: 4816 → 4825/4835 → 4850.
• Risk: False breakout when volume and price do not match.
⸻
🎯 Action Plan
• Want to short (follow short-term):
• Plan 1: Short after confirming break below 4770, target 4740–4728, stop loss above 4785.
• Plan 2: Try to short near 4780–4785 when encountering resistance, stop loss at 4795.
• Want to long (against the trend, buy low):
• Plan 1: Gradually position near 4740–4750, stop loss below 4725.
• Plan 2: If 4785 breaks and holds, add long again if it retraces without breaking, target 4816, stop loss at 4770.
• Position control: In a range market, single position ≤ 0.3–0.5 times, add when trend is established.
This is a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice (investing requires caution)
