The backend messages have been flooding in these past two days - 'Jinchain, will there be a rate cut in September or not?' 'The market is fluctuating back and forth; is the bull market about to run out?'

To be honest, I've been staring at the market for days and my eyes are sore. A few days ago, a Federal Reserve official just said 'inflation hasn't stabilized yet', and the market immediately dropped by hundreds; then yesterday a dovish statement came out saying 'it’s time to loosen policy', and ETH shot back up to 4700. This back-and-forth volatility is enough to confuse beginners; even the veterans around me who have been in the game for five years are scratching their heads: 'Is this trading coins or playing rock-paper-scissors with the Fed?'

But amidst the chaos, we must focus on the key points. Let’s lay it out clearly: the likelihood of a rate cut in September is still high, but we need to watch two critical points; as for the bull market, whether it can continue and how it continues all depends on how this rate cut plays out.

First, let me clarify the 'key timeline' for you - don't be led by the news.

The recent market turmoil is stirred up by the Federal Reserve's mixed 'dovish and hawkish statements.' But we shouldn't panic; remember these key dates, and you'll have a clearer understanding:

Tonight (at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting), Powell's statements are the first hurdle. This old man always speaks with 'half a sentence', but last year when he was hawkish here, BTC dropped directly by 15% the next day; if he dares to mention 'rate cuts coming soon' this year, the market might jump tonight - no need to wait for him to finish, just focus on the real-time transcript for the words 'inflation' and 'employment'; mentioning 'inflation dropping' is dovish, while fixating on 'strong employment data' is hawkish.

Next is the data: the non-farm payroll data at the end of this month and on September 6. Last year, when the non-farm employment numbers exceeded expectations, the Fed directly pushed the rate cut plans back by two months. This data is like an 'economic thermometer'; if employment remains so strong, they might stubbornly say 'wait a bit longer'; but if the data drops, a September rate cut is a sure thing.

Final resolution: Interest rate decision at 2 AM on September 18. Before this, the market is expected to be volatile - don't be annoyed by the fluctuations; before the interest rate cuts in 2019, the market also oscillated for nearly a month, but the real big trends always emerge after such 'guessing periods' end.

How far can the bull market go? It all depends on how 'this rate cut move' plays out.

I reviewed the recent three Federal Reserve rate cut cycles in the crypto market, and based on this momentum, I want to outline two most likely scenarios - don't just remember the conclusions; you need to understand 'why I judge this way.'

Scenario one: September rate cut by 25 basis points (high probability)

If it is indeed a rate cut, this round of market action will follow a 'rise first, then slow down' pattern.

On the day the first rate cut lands, the market is likely to surge violently - refer to March 2020 when the first rate cut happened, BTC rose 20% in half a day, and the leading altcoins doubled directly. At that moment, don’t be greedy; that surge will likely aim for 'this bull market peak.' I plan to sell one-third of my ETH and previously acquired LDO when prices peak that day.

But be careful during the second rate cut. Last year, when the Fed cut rates, the increase during the second cut was directly halved, leaving only a rebound market. To put it simply, 'policy-driven bull markets' work like this: the first is a 'surprise', and the later ones become 'habitual.' Once a few rate cuts are done, the market will start to ponder 'is the policy dividend over?', and at that point, it might signify a 'policy peak' - this bull market cycle might just follow the path of a few rate cuts.

Scenario two: No rate cut in September (low probability, but don’t panic)

If there is no rate cut, there’s no need to rush to declare 'the bull market is over.'

This situation has happened before in 2016: the market was looking forward to a rate cut in September, but the Fed said 'let's wait and see.' At that time, BTC first dropped by 10%, but over the next two months, it slowly climbed and ended up increasing more than expected when the rate cut finally happened. Why? Because 'expectations did not materialize', the market won’t prematurely 'exhaust' the 'upside', instead, it will slowly gather strength during the fluctuations.

If there is indeed no rate cut, the market will definitely oscillate back and forth during that period - ETH might drop below 4000, and some low-position L2 tokens might create golden buying opportunities. But remember: every pullback is an opportunity. Last year, during the Fed’s 'dovish' phase, I caught the bottom of Aave, and over the next two months, it rose by 80% - seizing the right opportunity once during such times can yield significant gains; the bull market might just continue until the end of the year, or even early next year.

How to operate in the next half month? Here’s some practical advice:

From now until September 18, the market is bound to 'fidget' - it might rise 2% early, then drop 3% in the afternoon; don't be scared by this kind of short-term fluctuation. My principle for trading these days is: 'Don't focus on the hourly charts, just look at the monthly trend.' My core positions haven't changed; I've just used a small part of my funds to catch some short-term differences during the fluctuations.

Here are two specific directions for you:

If the rate cut is confirmed, do not chase after the first surge; instead, focus on the coins you hold - for those that surge rapidly (like the meme coins and popular DeFi mentioned earlier), reduce your positions first and take profits. Don't believe the nonsense that 'it can double again'; policy-driven peaks often come faster than expected.

If there is no rate cut, you can be bolder. Focus on those deeply beaten low sectors: ARB, OP in L2, and the established leaders in DeFi (like Compound). When they pull back to the 60-day moving average, start with small positions; if they drop more, add more - this setup is much safer than waiting to chase after prices rise later.

Lastly, let me say something heartfelt: this bull market is not yet at the end, but the window period where 'any random buy makes a profit' is indeed narrowing. Don't spend all day frantically watching the market; seizing the key opportunities around the rate cut landing or market pullbacks is much stronger than anything else.

I am Jinchain, and my team has been closely following the news from Jackson Hole these days. As soon as Powell speaks tonight, I will summarize the key points in the circle. Follow me; we won't guess; we will only focus on hard evidence - to profit from this round of market, we must follow a reliable rhythm.