Recently, several Federal Reserve officials have expressed: "No rush to cut interest rates" and "may only cut once this year".
As soon as this was said, market sentiment immediately shifted from optimism to hesitation.
But on reflection, who is the Federal Reserve really serving? The answer is clearly Wall Street and big capital. If the main funds are quietly building positions, would they loudly tell you: "We're about to push the market up, get on board fast"? Of course not. Instead, they prefer to create smoke and mirrors—make you fearful, make you doubtful, and make you give up your chips at critical moments.
So the logic is clear: market absorption → indicates future upward movement; officials talking bearish → aims to disrupt retail investors' rhythm.
As soon as Powell spoke, Bitcoin and Ethereum soared together
Affected by Powell's dovish remarks, Bitcoin quickly surged to $117,000 on the evening of August 22, with a 24-hour increase of about 4%.
Ethereum performed even stronger, surging to $4,800, with a 24-hour increase of up to 14.4%, just a few dollars away from the historical high.
Meanwhile, the market is experiencing another wave of liquidations:
178,750 people were liquidated in the past 24 hours
Total liquidation amount $762 million
Among them, short positions liquidated $471 million, long positions liquidated $290 million
Data again proves: the news is just a trigger; what really determines price fluctuations is the game between funds and positions.
BTC technical analysis
4-hour cycle: The candlestick rose strongly due to news stimulation, but the trading volume is insufficient, and upper resistance levels need to be closely monitored to avoid blindly chasing high prices.
Trend indicator: The Guber indicator for cycles below three hours is generally bullish, and short-term dips can still lay out long positions.
KDJ indicator: 1 hour to 6 hours are all above 50 (bullish zone), short-term trend continues upward.
Operational strategy: wait for the 15/30-minute candlestick to pull back to the EMA60 moving average or double bottom neckline support, which is the ideal time to lay out long positions.
Key price levels:
Resistance levels: ① 118,232 ② 120,281
Support levels: ① 114,750 ② 112,489
ETH technical analysis
Ethereum currently has two possibilities:
Completing a full 5 waves of upward movement;
It is at the end of wave 5, approaching the phase top.
Therefore:
Low-cost chips can continue to play the big wave 5;
Those chasing high prices need to gradually raise their stop-loss;
Those who missed the opportunity should wait for support levels to provide an entry.
Key price levels:
Resistance levels: ① 4,950 ② 5,192
Support levels: ① 4,670 ② 4,559
OKB leads the platform coin sector
In the altcoin sector, OKB surged 31.17% yesterday, with a weekly increase of as much as 158%, breaking through the $250 mark.
Even old Xu personally reminds of risks, aiming to clear responsibility. But funds are still madly pursuing, the reason being:
Burning mechanism compresses FDV
Potential IPO expectations
Platform coin valuation logic has been reassessed
This wave of enthusiasm not only pushed OKB up but also ignited the platform coin race. Bio Protocol rose 23.9% in a day and also gave a golden cross signal.
However, in the short term, OKB's problem is overheating. Retail funds are flocking in, disrupting the rhythm of the major players. It is highly likely to undergo a cycle of washout → concentration of chips → re-upping.
Medium to long-term range expectations:
First range: $400–500 (reasonable price, corresponding to a market value of about $10 billion)
Second range: $1,000–2,000 (depends on the main players' control and market environment)
In conclusion: the truth of the market is hidden in the candlestick charts
In the crypto world, the least valuable is "the opinions of others", the most valuable is your ability to read the market and see through the trend.
The main players need you to believe the story and be swayed by emotions, thus repeatedly buying high and selling low. But those who can truly laugh last in a bull market are often:
Ignore the noise, focus on the candlestick charts;
See through the true intentions behind the news;
Hold firm amid doubt, and position amid fear.
So, back to the initial question:
September interest rate cut? Highly likely to cut.
Is the bull market over? Not at all.
Stay calm, stay patient, and maintain faith in the trend. Every pullback during a bull market is an opportunity for you to get in.
