Recent on-chain data shows an intriguing trend: although pessimistic voices claiming 'the bear market has arrived' are prevalent in market discussions, capital is quietly flowing in.

In the past 30 days, the number of wallet addresses holding 1-10 BTC has increased by 7,425; a more diversified group of retail investors (holding less than 1 BTC) has also bought 19,556 BTC.

This is different from the previous 'chasing highs and killing lows' behavior of retail investors, as more and more investors now choose to patiently accumulate at low positions. It can be said that the market is evolving, and retail investors are growing. But the question is: when the next round of sharp declines comes, can they hold their ground, or will they be overwhelmed by panic again?

BTC: How to view the big pie in the short term

Bitcoin's recent performance is similar to before, having formed a 'double top' pattern. The current key support level is at $108,000, where the price has rebounded once before; if it tests the bottom again, this area may still become an opportunity for bulls to test a rebound.

However, it is worth noting that the funding rate remains positive, indicating that bulls are still optimistic, while bears have not aggressively increased their positions. Historical experience shows that true bottoms are often accompanied by negative funding rates and bears being squeezed out. Therefore, rushing to 'bottom fish' now still carries risks; a more prudent approach is to watch and wait for confirmation signals.

ETH: Healthy trend, do not blindly short

Ethereum's recent performance has been relatively strong. The key position to watch is the $4,100 neckline support; if it stabilizes, that point will become an important starting point for a rebound.

Market characteristics:

  • The daily trend remains healthy, and each pullback has maintained the upward trend line;

  • There is pressure near previous highs, but bearish strength is insufficient;

  • Highs and lows continue to rise, with a clear bullish advantage.

Conclusion: ETH is still accumulating strength and could pull out a big bullish candle at any time. Therefore, even if you are not bullish, do not easily short.

SOL: The potential dark horse is accumulating strength

In the context of the overall market being under pressure, SOL has become one of the few varieties that remains resilient. Institutions and crypto capital continue to increase positions, plus the potential benefits of the October ETF provide additional room for imagination for SOL.

If this were during a general market uptrend, SOL could easily rise by several percentage points in a single day. However, these positives happen to appear during a down market, so more patience is required. Currently, it is still a good opportunity to accumulate at low levels; compared to the already skyrocketed ETH, SOL may be the more worthy potential stock to focus on.

Market sentiment: Fear and greed tend towards caution

CMC data shows that the fear and greed index is currently at 45/100 (neutral), down 5 points from last week and down 22 points from last month. This indicates that market sentiment has clearly become cautious after the 'August Greed' phase.

At the same time:

  • BTC's dominance has decreased by -3.12% in the last 30 days, currently accounting for 57.5%;

  • Spot trading volume has decreased by 32.04%;

  • The altcoin season index has risen to 47/100 (the highest since April 2025), indicating that early capital is gradually shifting towards altcoins.

If the index breaks through 50/100, it may officially announce the arrival of 'altcoin season'.

Altcoins and on-chain hotspots

The altcoin sector still generally follows the rhythm of BTC and ETH. The DeFi and Meme sectors are showing temporary weakness; if Ethereum strengthens again, related quality assets are expected to recover simultaneously.

On-chain, hotspots are more active:

  • Virtual, AIXBT, WLD have flat trends;

  • LPT begins to gain momentum;

  • OKB may welcome a bottom-fishing opportunity, pay attention to the $170 level;

  • CRO is once again driven by political factors.

In the battle between Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, the 'Big Dog' wins, with CDOG and XDOG showing similar trends, becoming market focal points. Currently, the on-chain leader remains PUUSH, while Four J will launch the new coin CDL at 4 PM, worth paying attention to.

Overall, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still the market benchmarks: BTC's key support is at $108,000, ETH is strong but should not be blindly shorted. Meanwhile, SOL shows potential for independent trends, and on-chain opportunities still surpass other sectors. Retail investors' low-position buying behavior shows the evolution of market sentiment, but whether it can withstand true tests in the future still needs to be watched during the next major downturn.

📌 In short:

  • BTC $108,000 is a key defense line;

  • ETH could explode at any time;

  • SOL's potential is worth tracking closely;

  • Signs of altcoin season are beginning to emerge, on-chain hotspots remain opportunities.