《Focusing on Powell's Speech at 10 PM: A Watershed Moment for the Crypto World: Celebration or Bloodbath?》

Bitcoin plummeted 10% from a high of $124,000 to $114,000, and as the entire network cried out for a 'cooling down', this Friday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is quietly becoming a key variable in determining the direction of the crypto market for the year. This seemingly routine statement may contain 'hidden lines' that could lead to market euphoria or a crash.

This round of Bitcoin's sharp decline is not a sign of the cryptocurrency sector's decline, but rather the result of multiple signals resonating: the technical KDJ indicator surged to 105, and short-term upward momentum has exhausted; the stock prices of institutions that had rushed in previously have halved, with clear signs of capital withdrawal. The core pressure comes from the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy shift — this 'behind-the-scenes driver' that has stirred the crypto world multiple times will release new signals again.

Looking back at history, Powell's statements have always been a barometer for the crypto market: in 2021, his remarks of 'no interest rate hikes' propelled Bitcoin to new heights, while the 'interest rate hike declaration' in 2022 caused the market value of the crypto sector to be cut in half. Currently, with inflation at 2.5% and unemployment at 4.1% in the US, the market has strong expectations for a rate cut in September, but the extent and wording still remain uncertain. If a clear 25 basis point cut is announced, Bitcoin may rebound to $120,000; a 50 basis point cut could potentially push it to $130,000; if the topic of rate cuts is avoided, the crypto market may face a new wave of selling.

It is worth noting that the inertia logic of 'rate cuts = Bitcoin rise' may become ineffective. The Trump administration's tariff policies may push up inflation, offsetting the effects of rate cuts; although Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $28.7 billion, 80% of call options show that funds have already bet in advance, and a reversal of 'buying the expectation and selling the fact' cannot be ruled out. On the technical side, if the support level of $114,000 is breached, a drop to the $100,000 mark is not alarmist.

In terms of operations, it is advisable to watch the changes in the short term: if Powell releases a clear signal for a rate cut, a light position can be followed; if his stance is hawkish, it might be an opportunity to accumulate at lower prices. In the long run, once the rate cut cycle begins, continuous inflow of institutional capital is still a major trend, and a target of $130,000 is achievable, but a 20%-30% pullback during the process may become the norm, testing the resolve of investors.

Is Powell's speech a 'life or death moment' for the crypto world or a 'golden pit'? The answer will soon be revealed, and the real opportunity always belongs to the few who understand the signals and maintain their composure. #杰克逊霍尔会议 #BTC