#美联储7月会议纪要 On August 20, 2025, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting held on July 29-30. This highly anticipated document not only revealed the intense competition within the Federal Reserve between inflation and employment but also, for the first time, included payment stablecoins in the core agenda of monetary policy discussions, injecting new imaginative space into the virtual currency market.

1. Policy deadlock: The fog of rate cuts in September is thick.

The meeting minutes show that the Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.5% by a vote of 9 to 2. Although most officials believe that the current monetary policy stance is 'moderate or slightly tightening,' sufficient to cope with economic fluctuations, Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller voted against it, arguing for an immediate rate cut of 25 basis points to prevent further deterioration of the labor market.

This divergence has appeared for the first time since 1993, highlighting the profound rift within the Federal Reserve between 'preserving inflation' and 'preserving employment.' Notably, the non-farm payroll data released after the meeting for July (only adding 73,000 jobs) and the significant downward revision of the previous two months' data (a total reduction of 258,000) seem to confirm the concerns of Bowman and Waller.

However, the aggressive tariff policies of the Trump administration have cast a shadow over the inflation outlook. The minutes note that tariffs have significantly pushed up commodity prices, and some officials believe that if the tariff effects are excluded, core inflation is close to the 2% target. Yet others warn that if tariffs lead to sustained disruptions in supply chains, inflation may remain high for a long time.

Market expectations for a rate cut in September remain strong. According to the CME 'FedWatch' tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is as high as 81.9%. Investors are closely watching Powell, who is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Conference, hoping to catch hints of a policy shift.

2. New variables: The impact of stablecoins on monetary policy.

The most striking breakthrough in this meeting's minutes is that the Federal Reserve systematically discussed for the first time the potential impact of payment stablecoins on the financial system.

The minutes clearly state that with the advancement of the (GENIUS Act), the use of payment stablecoins may accelerate. This will not only enhance payment efficiency but may also 'increase the demand for reserve assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds.' Officials are concerned that the large-scale issuance of stablecoins may alter the liquidity structure of the banking system, affecting the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

Some participants even suggested that close monitoring of the reserve asset composition, redemption mechanisms, and risk transmission pathways of stablecoins should be conducted to prevent potential financial stability risks. This statement marks the formal entry of stablecoins from a marginal topic into the policy vision of the world's most important central banks.

(Illustration: Mainstream stablecoins typically use cash, short-term government bonds, and other highly liquid assets as reserves, and their scale expansion will directly impact the government bond market.

3. Market impact: Virtual currencies face new opportunities.

The Federal Reserve's attention to stablecoins undoubtedly injects strong confidence into the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem. This indicates that compliant and transparent digital assets are gradually gaining recognition within the traditional financial system.

For investors, this means:

1. Decreasing marginal policy risk: Central banks are beginning to acknowledge rather than ignore stablecoins, paving the way for a clearer regulatory framework for the industry.

2. Increased demand for infrastructure: The growing demand for stablecoins for government bonds may benefit on-chain government bond tokenization projects (such as Ondo, BlackRock's BUIDL).

3. Expansion of payment scenarios: If stablecoins become a new choice for cross-border payments, their usage and network effects will significantly increase.

Although the Federal Reserve remains cautious in its interest rate policy, its open discussions on emerging financial technologies suggest a more integrated future. Under the triple pressures of inflation, employment, and technological innovation, global monetary policy stands at a crossroads of transformation. This time, virtual currency is no longer a bystander.

This article is based on publicly available information and does not constitute investment advice.