#失业金人数 is good news for families, don't worry too much 😅, but who can completely relax their hearts? 🌝

Let's talk about today first 😇

🚨 Tonight's data is weak (235,000), which is a short-term benefit for the crypto market, but caution is needed:

Policy combination punch: If Powell downplays interest rate cuts, the benefit may turn into a negative;

ETH-specific risk: 910,000 staked assets unlocked and selling pressure remains, still under pressure after the rebound.

📉 1. Basic situation of the data

Published value: 235,000 (previous value 224,000, expected 226,000)

Core contradiction:

Higher than expected + previous value: indicates short-term weakness in the job market, rising unemployment pressure.

Policy signal:

Strengthening concerns about economic slowdown, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September increased from 85% to 90% (CME FedWatch Tool).

⚙️ 2. Mechanism of impact on the crypto market

1. Liquidity expectations dominate short-term sentiment

Increased probability of rate cuts → Weaker dollar index → Funds flow into BTC, ETH, and other risk assets, boosting valuations.

2. Maximum benefit logic brings maximum bearish risk. BTC rate cut expectations + ETF fund inflow breaks below $112,000 algorithmic sell-off. ETH breaks through 4,350, triggering $2.1 billion short position liquidation from staking unlock (910,000 ETH selling pressure). SOL small coins beta effect (high volatility co-movement). Liquidity crisis leads to excessive declines.