The past one and a half months after the new high have been experiencing a volatile decline. Currently, the 4-hour level has shown a downward channel structure. Bitcoin rebounded weakly after a second retest near 112,000 last night, but it is still a weak rebound. In the morning, after rebounding to the EMA52 of the daily K, it started to decline with increased volume again. However, the fact that Bitcoin can stop falling at 112,000 indicates that the market has reached a preliminary consensus in the short term. The turnover rate is decreasing, and the strength of the two rebounds is weak, which is simply because the market is in a wait-and-see state. More investors are waiting for Powell's speech at the central bank's annual meeting and are hesitant to take action. It can be seen that Bitcoin and Ethereum's spot ETFs have seen a net outflow for four consecutive trading days, with investors withdrawing a total of 1.9 billion dollars. Various signs indicate that the market's institutional main traders are feeling tense before Powell's speech, with risk aversion sentiment at a peak.

The Federal Reserve's last meeting minutes released yesterday early morning were generally balanced, with no significant bearish or bullish signals, and this meeting has a lagging effect, so we don't need to worry about it for now. The focus is on Powell's speech at 10 PM tomorrow night at the global central bank annual meeting. It is well known that his words and actions will cause significant fluctuations in the market.

From the liquidity heat map, after four days of risk aversion outflow, the overall market lacks liquidity, with both the upper and lower areas being empty. Only retail investors are engaged in leveraged speculation. Before Powell's speech, we can still position for low longs near 112,000 during the day. I will also provide an immediate interpretation and response strategy after the news is released. #杰克逊霍尔会议