Last night, Bitcoin and Ethereum staged a 'bottom rebound,' with both longs and shorts exploding, as short-term funds engage in back-and-forth battles within the volatile range. Currently, both BTC and ETH remain in a consolidation phase. There are still plenty of small-scale opportunities, but the core of the operation is 'range + signals,' and one must take profits in a timely manner, without fantasizing about immediately breaking out of the trend. In a volatile market, overthinking often leads to profits being quickly swallowed back.

In the past 24 hours, a total of 90,288 investors have been liquidated globally, amounting to as much as $346 million.

This releases several signals:

  1. Leverage funds are repeatedly 'squeezed' by the market, with bulls being washed out in waves, and sentiment has not truly stabilized.

  2. For short-term players, the current pattern means—either the market has not truly bottomed yet, or a more intense washout is needed before a strong rally can come.

  3. Bull market stages are often the easiest time for traders to lose money, due to excessive optimism and neglecting position management.

Macroeconomic perspective: Rate cut expectations support the overall direction

CME tool data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September remains as high as 78.4%~85%.

This means that overall liquidity expectations remain relatively loose, which is a positive for risk assets like Bitcoin.

But be cautious, once inflation or employment data unexpectedly reverses, the probability of rate cuts may turn, and the market could stage a 'profit-taking' reversal at any time. Top institutions have basically confirmed that a 25bp rate cut will occur in September, but whether the market will face another washout before that is a risk that cannot be ignored.

BTC market: 112k key level

Bitcoin has retraced from a high of 124k to 113k, and is currently at a position overlapping with an integer level and a dense trading area.

Key position:

  • Upper pressure: 114.5k–116k. If a breakout occurs with volume, it may trigger short covering, looking up to 118k–120k.

  • Lower support: 110k–108k. If it breaks down, be cautious of a quick drop to 105k.

Moreover:

  1. The daily MA54 has been broken at 115k.

  2. On August 14, the large bearish candle that peaked and then fell exceeded 6%. On-chain data shows that chips held for more than a year were clearly sold at this position.

Overall, BTC is more inclined to a volatile adjustment in the short term, making rapid increases difficult.

ETH market: More fragile but with greater elasticity

Ethereum's performance is often more extreme than BTC—rising sharply and also falling hard.

  • Upper level: If it can break through and stabilize above $4500, it may aim for $4800, or even challenge $5000.

  • Lower level: If it breaks below $4050, it will retest the range of $3850–3980; if it breaks down again, it may accelerate the drop to $3500.

Currently, ETH still has a need for a pullback; position control is particularly important, and one should not get carried away by short-term rebounds.

Liquidation map: Key points of the long-short game

From the overall liquidation distribution:

  • The core defense line for bulls is at BTC 110k. If it breaks down, about $5.1 billion in contracts will be liquidated.

  • If the upper 126k is broken, it will trigger the liquidation of over $12.5 billion in short positions.

  • If it breaks below 110k–108k, more than $6 billion in contracts will face risk.

Operational advice:

  1. Long-term spot holders: 112k can enter in batches; even if it pulls back to 108k, it’s not a big issue. If it drops to 105k, low leverage could even be considered.

  2. Do not stay in cash during this phase: the characteristic of a bull market is to 'force you to miss out, making you afraid to get in.'

ETF funds: The barometer of this bull market

  • BTC spot ETF: A net outflow of $523 million on August 19, showing a clear weakening after continuous inflows.

  • ETH spot ETF: A significant net outflow for two consecutive days, amounting to $197 million and $422 million respectively. Previously, when ETH broke through $4000, ETF institutions made large purchases; this pullback is more due to selling pressure from on-chain staking redemptions.

Overall, institutions have not massively sold their chips. The next four months are still the most important trading window of the year, and the likelihood of institutions exiting on a large scale at this moment is very low.

Altcoin highlights: OKB anomaly

OKB approaches $200, recently becoming the core of the platform token sector. Its benefits include:

  • Gas transfer fees are almost zero;

  • Total supply reduced from 300 million to 21 million coins.

Shortcomings: Lack of contract mechanisms, currently still a single-coin, with stronger speculative attributes. It has meme potential in the short term, but it's hard to sustain.

The recent popularity of Euro Chain is extremely high, reminiscent of the rise of SOL and BNB in previous years. However, for short-term operations, it's advisable to participate with small positions, 'betting small to win big, without using valuable tokens to gamble on low-value ones' is a reasonable strategy.