Interpretation of the deep impact of the Federal Reserve's July minutes on the cryptocurrency market
In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July policy meeting. The minutes show that only two officials clearly supported an interest rate cut in July, while 'almost all' other officials still agreed to maintain interest rates. However, it is worth noting that a few officials have hinted or will join the interest rate cut camp in September.
The signals released by these minutes are very subtle: in the short term, the Federal Reserve remains hawkish and is not in a hurry to release liquidity; however, in the medium term, it has already laid the groundwork for a potential shift.
For the cryptocurrency market, the impacts can be divided into three levels:
1️⃣ Short-term pressure is evident
Since most officials maintain interest rates, the market interprets this as a hawkish tone still present, and the strength of the dollar and interest rates has put pressure on funds in the cryptocurrency market. Cryptocurrency prices face pressure at high levels, with short-term rebounds lacking strength, and the market shows signs of tug-of-war and fluctuations.
2️⃣ Medium-term expectations are heating up
Although current policies have not loosened, a few officials have released signals of 'possibly supporting interest rate cuts in September.' This means that if there is indeed a policy shift in September, market liquidity expectations will be ignited, and the cryptocurrency market is expected to welcome a rapid influx of funds, potentially triggering a new round of upward momentum.
3️⃣ Emotion leads, expectations precede
The cryptocurrency market has always been one of trading expectations. Although the minutes are somewhat hawkish in the short term, the market will anticipate the possibility of September. In other words, the real turning point in the market may not wait for the policy to be implemented, but will be reflected during the fermentation stage of expectations.
Operational thoughts and suggestions:
Short-term: Maintain a fast pace, operate high shorts and low longs around the range, avoid chasing highs and selling lows, keep positions light, and ensure proper defense.
Midline: Focus on key support zones, once market sentiment confirms a warming due to interest rate cut expectations, proactively position and layout potential breakout points.
Risk control: Before the market clarifies, patiently wait, avoid holding losing positions, and quick entry and exit are key.
Conclusion:
The July minutes have temporarily suppressed the rebound sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, but September is the real time node. The rules in the cryptocurrency market are simple: the market moves ahead of the news, if you want to profit, you must act faster than others.
