ETH Bull-Bear Contest Intensifies: Key Level Defense, Signal Traps, and Operation Guidelines
Today, the ETH market is fiercely defending around the 4190 point, with the main force testing three times without breaking, revealing a clear intention to protect the market. However, one must be cautious of the rule that 'four tests of a key level are likely to break through.'
Technical risks are prominent, with MACD showing a 'false golden cross' this morning. After DIF crossed DEA, it quickly plummeted within an hour, resulting in retail investors' long positions being liquidated.
A similar scenario occurred on August 12, causing ETH to plummet from 4300 to 4050. It is also important to note that the current trading volume is only 27,000 ETH, which is 15% of the daily average; extreme low volume indicates that the main force is building momentum, and a 'violent trend reversal' may occur later.
The news front presents a hedged situation: The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes mentioned high inflation risks, suppressing risk assets; meanwhile, Arbitrum's daily trading volume exceeded 2 million transactions, and the Ethereum Foundation will launch a developer funding program in September, providing support for ETH, keeping it oscillating around 4200.
Three Types of Trends and Operations
False Breakout at 4244 (Probability 70%): If the breakout occurs with a trading volume below 35,000 ETH, it is likely to be a trap for buyers. It is recommended to observe the volume for 30 minutes after the breakout before taking action.
Breakdown below 4160: If lost, it will look down at the strong support level of 4050, but may trigger panic selling and a chain liquidation, which needs to be avoided in time.
4190 Fluctuation: Awaiting the guidance of the US stock market opening at 21:30 tonight; a strong Nasdaq may drive ETH to break through, while a downturn may push it lower.
Segmentation Strategy
Spot Traders: Decisively reduce positions if it breaks below 4160 to protect profits.
Contract Players: A light long position can be taken if it breaks 4244, with a stop-loss set at 4220.
Conservative Traders: Place a pending order at 4050, relying on strong support for layout.
Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, requiring dynamic strategy adjustments; controlling positions and hedging are key. Dangerous moments often conceal opportunities.
Strong rebound, asset doubling! Keep up with the trends, position in advance, and easily reap substantial profits.
Continued attention: API3 UMA
