Big news! Do you know about the Jackson Hole annual meeting that all the global central bank governors are attending? On Friday, Fed Chairman Powell will give what could be his last key speech during his tenure.
Right now, all of Wall Street is red-eyed, betting on one thing—whether the Fed will sharply cut interest rates next month!
Do you know how crazy traders are? They actually poured $10 million into buying 325,000 options contracts, betting that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points in September (that is, 0.5%)! If they're right, they could make $100 million! This is even more thrilling than going to Macau!
Although last week's PPI data exceeded expectations, rising 0.9%, indicating inflation is still a bit sticky, it doesn't deter the gambling nature of these people. The market now believes there is an approximately 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut next month.
This year's meeting will definitely be a grand show. Powell's speech this time is 'almost certain' to be his last as Fed Chairman at the Jackson Hole meeting. Everyone is not only concerned about whether there will be a rate cut in September and by how much, but also whether he will make cuts to the Fed's policy framework.
If Powell isn't as 'dovish' (injecting liquidity) as the market expects, the market may turn against him immediately, especially sensitive short-term bonds, which can react drastically.
Some smart money has already quietly shifted towards defense. A JPMorgan client survey shows that the number of bears has decreased, and more people are choosing 'neutral', probably fearing that if Powell 'turns hawkish' (doesn't inject liquidity), the market will crash.
What impact does this have on our cryptocurrency?
Remember a simple principle: injecting liquidity (rate cuts) ≈ more cheap money → possibly flowing into high-risk assets → favorable for crypto.
If Powell's speech on Friday is 'dovish' (indicating a rate cut), market sentiment will likely soar, and big players like Bitcoin and Ethereum may rally. After all, many institutions now consider crypto as an asset to hedge against inflation and traditional financial risks.
But if Powell unexpectedly turns 'hawkish' (saying there's no rush to cut rates or that the cut will be very small), emphasizing the fight against inflation, then prepare for volatility! Risk assets may all tremble, and crypto will find it hard to remain unaffected. However, the crypto market often 'buys on expectations, sells on facts', so even if there is a rate cut, be wary of the benefits being fully priced in.
Friday is destined to be a sleepless night! Once Powell speaks, the global market will shake. Will those betting on a 50 basis point rate cut get rich overnight, or will the conservatives laugh last? Let's wait and see! Don't forget to buckle up; whether in the stock market or crypto, this volatility won't be small!
No matter how the big shots play, we ordinary people shouldn't go All-in. Keeping some spare cash and controlling risk is the way to go!$BTC $ETH $SOL #杰克逊霍尔会议 #加密市场回调 #ETH质押退出动态观察 #中国加密新规 #美联储取消创新活动监管计划
