2025-08-19 Night Line

I have arrived in Datong, after traveling from Xinzhou to Taiyuan on winding mountain roads. The scenery along the way has uplifted my mood. Watching these cows grazing on the hillside, it feels like the clouds are just sticking to the slopes. Life is indeed quite short, and there is no need to waste this already brief time on unnecessary mental struggles. No matter how we live, it's still a lifetime. This applies to work as well as trading. If you stay calm and patient, things will gradually improve. If you are feeling particularly unhappy right now, I suggest you set aside your work, take a break, and go for a walk. Instead of heading to a bustling city, try visiting the wild mountains and fields; it's really quite nice.

By morning, there was a 1h-4h bearish trend and a 1d bullish trend. By evening, even the 1d had entered the bearish territory. I don't know what happened. I looked around at the market movements and Jin Shi, but I didn't find any clear negative policies.

If we could get a golden dip before the interest rate cut, that would indeed be great.

I haven't closed my long position either; I'll just leave it there. If it really falls back to my entry price, adding a bit more to my position would be fine.

For those holding short positions that were previously trapped, you can continue to reduce your holdings in batches. If the spread is large and you can’t exit in one go, just reduce it slowly in batches. For smaller positions, reduce by 1/5 each time, and for larger positions, do it 1/10. Unwinding a position requires tremendous patience, and a locked position requires even more patience. You don’t need to worry about precise levels; as long as the spread is greater than 5%, there is value in reducing.

Looking ahead, tomorrow’s daily close indicates that Ethereum still needs to return to 4320 to close a 4-hour candle before we can determine a short-term bottom. If it can’t achieve this, the next level is 409x. Bitcoin has already approached the daily level of the bullish-bearish dividing line, around 1130-1135; there is no retreat left. If it drops further, there’s a chance of liquidating the bullish position at 1089. Sol needs to close on the daily line above 180 to establish a bottom; otherwise, it will still be down to 174.

It may not precisely reach these levels, but you can still simply determine whether this current pullback has ended by checking if it can stabilize at a 3% rebound from the bottom. If it stabilizes, it will reverse; if it doesn’t, we’ll see if it forms a double bottom or makes a new low. If it forms a double bottom, you can enter on the left side with a stop loss of around 1%. If it makes a new low, do not enter on the left side; you need to continue waiting.