Powell is an experienced person who only recognizes market feedback when looking at issues. Recently, he said something: when we are hungry, we will naturally eat. The meaning is very clear; they will not casually lower interest rates due to political pressure, nor will they leak hints about lowering rates in advance.

So this Friday when he speaks, it is highly likely that he will not mention anything about interest rates, and will instead say to wait and see. Even if the previous non-farm data wasn't great, he will stick to his principles. This person is indeed worthy of respect; as the head of the Federal Reserve, he is doing an excellent job.

From the perspective of political and market sensitivity, he will not touch on the topic of interest rates in this speech, but will focus on domestic inflation, economic resilience, and the impact of tariffs. To take a step back, if he even slightly hinted that a rate cut might happen in September, carrying a dovish sentiment, the crypto market would surely ride that wave to continue the bull market. But I bet he won't say anything at all.

Afterwards, the market may split into two factions. Assuming there is no rate cut in September, the likelihood of a rate cut in October is also low; it might have to wait until December, and there might only be one cut then. This way, the crypto market will be somewhat affected, casting a shadow over it.

However, the crypto market is unlikely to directly enter a bear market just because of a rate cut; it is more likely to experience sideways fluctuations until the market direction becomes clear. This is my view on the current macroeconomic situation.

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