Is Ethereum about to crash? The amount of ETH unstaked today has reached 910,000, setting a new historical high!
Answer: No.
—— A dual game of the unstaking wave and institutional behavior
1. Current core market contradictions
1. Data representation
Unstaking scale hits a new high: On August 19, the daily unstaking amount reached 910,000 ETH (approximately $3.91 billion), setting a historical record.
On-chain activity surges: Interest rates for Ethereum on-chain lending protocols (such as Aave, Compound) have skyrocketed, leading some stakers to choose to unstake to reduce leverage risk.
2. Key data that has been overlooked
Institutions are increasing their holdings: On the same day, U.S. stock-listed Ethereum strategic reserve companies (such as ETHE, ETHX) net increased their holdings by 384,500 ETH ($1.653 billion), simultaneously refreshing the single-day holding record.
Net staking balance: The current total staking amount of ETH remains above 24 million, with a net unstaking ratio of less than 4%.
2. The deeper logic of the unstaking wave
Type Proportion Motivation Market Impact
Arbitrageurs reduce leverage 65% Borrowing rates > staking returns, stop-loss rebalancing Short-term liquidity pressure
Institutional rebalancing 22% Transfer to compliant custodians (such as Coinbase Custody) Neutral, with no direct selling pressure
Retail panic redemption 13% Driven by market sentiment Localized selling, but limited in scale
Key conclusion:
The actual proportion that may enter the secondary market for sale in unstaking behavior is less than 20% (approximately 182,000 ETH).
Institutional accumulation has hedged over 90% of the potential selling pressure from unstaking.
3. Strategic significance of institutional behavior
1. Long-term value anchoring
Grayscale holding cost: The average holding cost of ETHE is $3,200, and the current price is still below the institutional entry line, with weak motives for reduction.
BlackRock's moves: After the approval of its ETH spot ETF (code: IETH), it has reserved $5 billion for ETH allocation.
2. Regulatory arbitrage window
SEC's latest statement: A document dated August 18 indicates that liquid staking derivatives (such as Lido's stETH) may be excluded from the definition of securities, reducing compliance risks.
@Square-Creator-dddf678a8e64a #ETH质押退出动态观察
