📈 Price Trend Prediction
1. Range Fluctuation Bias: Current ETH price is around $4,270, with short-term support at $4,250-$4,200 and resistance at $4,300-$4,350.
· If trading volume continues to increase (e.g., >80,000), it may break through $4,300 and test $4,320-$4,350 (previous high resistance zone).
· If volume is insufficient or breaks below $4,250, it may retrace to the strong support at $4,200 (institutional buying zone), breaking this level would turn bearish.
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⚠️ 4 Key Factors to Pay Attention To
1. Volume Changes:
· Current trading volume has increased to 56,228 (above the 5-day average), if it further increases to above 80,000, it may confirm an uptrend; if it shrinks to below 5,000, beware of false breakout risks.
2. Key Indicator Signals:
· MACD: Golden cross strengthened (DIF > DEA) and red bars are expanding, indicating short-term upward momentum; if the histogram narrows, a pullback may occur.
· RSI: If the 30-minute period is below 30 (oversold), a rebound may occur; if above 70 (overbought), take profit.
3. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow:
· Recently, $888 million worth of ETH (about 200,000 coins) flowed out of exchanges, showing a long-term bullish outlook, but the short-term derivatives funding rate is negative, indicating a bearish advantage, which may increase volatility.
· Pay attention to the psychological level of $4,200: if it falls below, it may trigger programmatic sell orders, leading to a sharp drop.
4. Time Window and Events:
· Golden trading period: In the next 4 hours (especially during the Asian session liquidity recovery period), rapid fluctuations may occur; holding time suggested ≤20 minutes, move stop loss once profit reaches $5.
· Beware of Federal Reserve policy expectations and ETF fund flow news, which may trigger sudden market shifts.
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🛡️ Operation Suggestions
· Long Opportunity:
Price retracing to stabilize at $4,250-$4,260 (15-minute closing green) + MACD red bar > 10, consider light entry, target $4,300→$4,320, stop loss below $4,250.
· Shorting Opportunity:
If it rebounds to $4,300-$4,310 and stalls (long upper shadow + volume shrinkage), consider shorting with a target of $4,250 and a stop loss at $4,330.
· Strict Risk Control:
Position ≤2% of total capital, set ladder stop loss (e.g., cost price -0.5% trailing stop), move to breakeven once profit reaches $5.
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💎 Summary
In the next 4 hours, ETH is likely to fluctuate between $4,200-$4,350; a breakout requires volume support.
Key Actions: Monitor volume changes + MACD/RSI indicators + the two price levels of $4,200 and $4,300, strict stop loss, avoid heavy positions!
Key Levels Price Range Operation Signal
Strong support zone $4,200-$4,220, stabilize and consider light long positions.
Day trading long-short boundary $4,250-$4,260 for buy on pullback or short on rebound.
Primary resistance zone $4,300-$4,350, if it stalls, consider shorting.