▎Brief and clear analysis of the situation:
▎1. Why did Bitcoin fall?
• Concerns about Fed policy – high inflation data (PPI +3.3% instead of the expected +2.5%) reduced the likelihood of monetary easing. This strengthened the dollar and triggered a sell-off by investors from risky assets.
• Outflow from ETFs – Grayscale and Ark Invest have recorded fund withdrawals, but BlackRock attracted $114 million, indicating a rotation of capital rather than a mass exodus.
• Statements from authorities – the US Treasury Secretary excluded replenishing Bitcoin reserves from the budget, adding negativity.
▎2. What’s next?
• Key support levels for BTC:
– $115,000 – if it holds, a rebound is possible.
– $112,500 – a breakout may lead to a drop to $110,000.
• Catalysts for growth:
– Fed symposium in Jackson Hole (August 21-23) – if the Fed hints at easing policy, Bitcoin may rise.
– Institutional investors (BlackRock, Metaplanet) continue accumulation – a long-term bullish signal.
▎3. Which coins will fall and which will rise?
• Likely to drop:
– Low liquidity altcoins (small caps) – they are sold first during corrections.
– Coins related to speculative narratives (meme coins, projects without real utility).
• May rise:
– Bitcoin (BTC) – the main beneficiary of institutional demand.
– Ethereum (ETH) – if expectations for ETH ETFs materialize.
– Major altcoins (SOL, XRP, BNB) – if the market recovers.
▎4. When to sell?
• Short term (1-2 weeks):
– If BTC breaks $112,500, it’s worth securing some profits.
– If it rebounds from $115,000, one can expect growth to $120,000+.
• Long term (3-6 months):
– Institutional demand (ETFs, corporate purchases) supports BTC.
– Sell only if it breaks below $100,000 (unlikely).
▎Conclusion:
• Currently – a correction phase, not a trend reversal.
• Main risks – statements from the Fed.
• Best positions – BTC, ETH, top altcoins.
• Weak coins – sell on further declines.
Optimal strategy:
• Hold BTC and ETH, reduce positions in altcoins if the situation worsens.
• If BTC falls to $110,000, it can be bought again.
• If it rises above $120,000, secure some profits before the Fed symposium.
The main thing is to keep an eye on macroeconomics (Fed, inflation, dollar).
