Bitcoin (BTC ~$115,000) has slightly pulled back after new highs. Many investors have taken profits - hence the pullback. This is a normal process after growth.

Ethereum (ETH ~$4,300) is even feeling better than Bitcoin — record money has flooded into institutional funds. Over 77% of all inflows for the week were into ETH, indicating growing interest from major players.

When funds and ETFs are buying the asset in bulk, it signals that 'strong hands' believe in further growth.

Macroeconomics and background

USA: inflation has fallen to 2.7%, unemployment has risen to 4.2%. This means the economy is cooling down, and the Fed will likely start lowering interest rates soon.

Why is this important for crypto? Cheap money (low rates) makes risky assets — such as Bitcoin and Ethereum — more attractive.

US Treasuries (10 years) yield about 4.3%, and the dollar index DXY hovers around 98. If the dollar weakens below 98, it will give an additional boost to the crypto market.

Oil ~$63 — markets are currently in moderate balance, without panic.

Key events ahead

August 21-23 - Jackson Hole symposium. Jerome Powell (head of the Fed) will speak there. If he hints at a rapid rate cut, markets could explode with growth.

September 17 - Fed meeting. Markets expect a 0.25% rate cut.

Possible scenarios

Bullish (40% chance):

Powell may hint at a rate cut. BTC returns to $124–128K, ETH to $4.6–5K.

Sideways (35%):

Without sharp signals from the Fed, the market is trading in a range.

BTC: $112-121K

ETH: $4.1–4.5K

Bearish (25%):

If the Fed is too cautious and doesn’t provide hints at rate cuts, the market will enter a deeper correction.

BTC: $108-112K

ETH: $3.8–4K

Conclusion

There is currently a healthy correction after the rise - this is a normal breather.

The main thing is to look at:

Money flows into ETFs for BTC and ETH (they really drive the market).

Dollar (DXY) and US bond yields.

If Powell signals a rate cut at Jackson Hole, the market can easily update new highs. If not, another wave of decline is possible.

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