Current Price: 2.9600 (-5.44% in the last 4h)
Trend: Bearish (price below all key EMAs, oversold RSI)
Key Indicators:
- EMA(9): 3.0404 (resistance)
- EMA(30): 3.1039 (strong resistance)
- EMA(45): 3.1207
- RSI(14): 29.92 (**oversold**, potential reversal signal)
- Support Levels: 2.8585 → 2.8523 (critical)
- Volume: Declining (lack of bullish conviction).
---
### Trading Plan for Next 4 Hours
#### ✅ Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation (High Probability)
- Entry: Short at 2.9550–2.9600 (break below current consolidation).
- Targets:
- Take Profit 1 (TP1): 2.9000 (psychological support)
- Take Profit 2 (TP2): 2.8585 (RSI-based support).
- Stop Loss (SL): 3.0100 (above EMA(9)/recent swing high).
- Why?
- Price is trapped below all EMAs (downtrend confirmed).
- RSI is oversold but not reversing yet—momentum favors bears.
#### ✅ Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Aggressive)
- Trigger: RSI divergence + break above EMA(9) (3.0404).
- Entry: Long at 3.0200–3.0400 (confirmation of reversal).
- Targets:
- TP1: 3.1000 (EMA(30) resistance)
- TP2: 3.1200 (EMA(45)).
- SL: 2.9500 (below current low).
- Why?
- RSI ≈30 suggests exhaustion. A bounce could squeeze shorts.
---
### Key Risk Management
1. Risk per Trade: ≤1–2% of capital.
2. Confirmation Needed:
- For shorts: Wait for 4h candle close below 2.9600.
- For longs: Require RSI reversal + volume spike.
3. Market Context:
- 30-day trend: -14.17% (bearish bias).
- Order book shows liquidity near 2.8500 (support).
---
### Conclusion
- Primary Bias: Short (targeting 2.8585) with tight SL.
- Reversal Watch: Monitor RSI for bullish divergence. A break above 3.0400 invalidates bears.
- Critical Time: Next 4h candle close—will confirm trend strength.
> Trade Wisely: Never force trades. If price consolidates sideways (no clear break), stay out. Use 15m charts for precision entries.
📉 Bearish Target: 2.8585 (-3.4% from current).
📈 Bullish Target: 3.1000 (+4.7% from current).