Today, ETH suddenly plummeted, with prices diving to $4228, and the market was instantly enveloped by panic emotions. On the surface, the 'public statements from Old Chuan' and the 'approaching ETH unlocking pledge' news bombarded in succession, triggering retail investors to follow suit and sell; however, upon deeper analysis, this decline seems more like the main forces using news to wash the盘, hiding a window for gradual accumulation under short-term disturbances.
The dual triggers for the sharp decline: 'pseudo-bearish' under amplified emotions
The direct trigger for this sharp decline has two factors:
Recently, Old Chuan's public statements about the crypto industry have been labeled as 'bearish,' triggering emotional sell-offs;
'The news of the expanded scale of ETH unlocking pledges' is being disseminated intensively, with many investors worried that whales will dump after unlocking, leading them to preemptively cut losses and exit.
Under the dual factors, ETH's decline exceeded 4% in a short time, dropping from around $4450 to $4228.
However, upon closer examination, these two 'bearish factors' were actually anticipated and do not count as sudden risks:
Old Chuan's statements focus on topics like the classification of crypto assets and the compliance of exchanges, which have long been the regulatory direction discussed in the industry and are not new. Institutions had already digested related expectations in advance, and this was even reflected in price movements. The so-called 'bearish impact' is more like a short-term emotional amplification due to celebrity effect, rather than substantive policy risks.
As for ETH unlocking pledges, on-chain data has already provided a clear signal: the scale of ETH about to be unlocked is approximately 23,000 coins, accounting for only 0.03% of the current circulation, far from reaching the level that would 'crash the market.' Historically, there has always been similar panic before each unlocking, but after the actual unlocking, most whales tend to continue staking rather than selling—this wave of news hype's 'selling pressure panic' is more for retail investors lacking data support.
Support level stabilizes: panic selling is exhausted, and bulls begin to accumulate
More crucially, this wave of decline has not broken the core support level: $4228 is precisely the middle track support of ETH's 4-hour chart and also the 'stabilization point' for many previous pullbacks. From the observation of volume, although selling pressure was concentrated during the decline, after falling to $4228, buying began to actively enter, and the price quickly rebounded to around $4310—this means that the short-term panic selling has basically cleared, and the bulls are starting to position themselves at critical support levels.
For ordinary investors, there is no need to be swayed by emotions; the focus should be on the key support range:
If the pullback can maintain the $4200-$4300 range, it is indeed an opportunity for gradual accumulation. After all, the long-term logic of ETH has not changed: institutional ETF continuous accumulation, accelerated ecological expansion, and other core driving forces remain. The statements from Old Chuan and the news about unlocking pledges are just short-term emotional disturbances, allowing one to acquire chips at a lower price after the pullback.
Even if the price further dips, there is stronger support from the daily MA30 moving average around $4200. As long as this position is not broken, the overall upward trend of ETH has not been damaged, and there is no need to disrupt the rhythm due to short-term fluctuations.
After washing the盘: the oscillating upward rhythm remains unchanged
The crypto world is always good at 'washing the盘 with news,' especially when ETH is not far from its previous high ($4730), the main forces need to use 'fake bearish' to clean out hesitant chips to break through resistance more easily. This sharp decline seems full of risks, but in reality, it is a process of the market filtering chips—when panic emotions recede, ETH is likely to return to the main trend of oscillating upward.
For investors who understand the logic, the current pullback is not a risk but an opportunity. By accurately grasping the support levels and ignoring short-term emotional disturbances, one can seize their own window in the volatility.
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