Bitcoin suddenly plummeted in the morning, with the 1-hour K-line directly breaking through the key support level, with $138 million liquidated across the network, leaving many bulls confused! Is this plunge a technical correction or a major negative surprise? Will it continue to fall below $115,000 or be ready to rebound at any time? Let's get straight to the point!
1. The culprit of the crash: Dual blow from technical and news!
Technical level broken
From the 1-hour K-line view, BTC directly fell below$116,810 key support level(As shown by the dotted line in the figure), this is the third test of this position in the past week! The MA5/MA10 moving averages have formed a death cross downwards, with increased trading volume, indicatingcollective stop-loss and profit-taking outflow, and bears are on the rampage!Negative news
US tariff war escalates: The US imposes 15%-50% tariffs on EU machinery and South Korean batteries, shaking the global supply chain, increasing risk aversion, and Bitcoin is being sold off as a risk asset.
Hong Kong stablecoin regulations implemented: Although beneficial for compliance in the long run, there are short-term concerns about 'funds flowing to compliant stablecoins', causing some hot money to withdraw from the crypto market.
Ethereum staking selling pressure: Over 850,000 ETH unstaked, DeFi protocols face selling pressure, dragging down Bitcoin sentiment.
2. Future scenario: Is $115,000 the bottom or halfway up?
Technical analysis: Key level battle
Support level: The most critical level currently is $114,920, which has been tested multiple times since July as a 'psychological barrier'. If it can hold, a short-term rebound looks at the resistance level of $119,185.
Break risk: If it falls below 114920, the 112,000-115,000 range will be the last line of defense for bulls, where there is a large institutional cost level, a breakdown may trigger a chain reaction of stop losses.
News: Three major benefits hedge against negatives
BlackRock ETF continues to attract funds: iShares Bitcoin Trust scale exceeds $52 billion, with over $4 billion net inflow in a week, institutional 'buy buy buy' mode remains.
Solana ecosystem explosion: Seeker phone + SKR token burning mechanism attract funds to the new public chain, but the diversion effect is limited, instead enhancing market heat.
Federal Reserve policy expectations: Although the probability of a rate cut in September has decreased, the overall trend of a 'rate cut cycle' remains unchanged, which is long-term beneficial for Bitcoin as an anti-inflation asset.
3. Personal opinion: The probability of breaking below 115,000 is low; oscillation upwards is the main theme!
Although the technical level has broken short-term, the support below 115,000 is very strong. Coupled with continuous institutional ETF fund inflow, breaking below 115,000 feels more like a 'golden pit'!
Operation suggestion:
Aggressive approach: Gradually bottom-fish in the 114920-116810 range, set stop loss at 113000, target 119185.
Cautious approach: Wait for K-line to recover MA5 before entering, avoid chasing the dip.
Financial month says a big truth:
The crypto market is never short of opportunities; what's lacking is patience! With this drop, do you think it's picking up people or pulling back from the cliff?
Remember! The market is not wrong, we are! I am @财月女神 , a top layout team, only serving ambitious individuals among the crazies! #BTC走势分析
