By 2140, all 21 million Bitcoins will have been mined, marking an important turning point in the history of cryptocurrencies. By then, the main source of income for miners will be gone, and maintaining network security will rely entirely on transaction fees.
Experts from Singapore's OKX, JuCoin, and XBO believe that there is still plenty of time before that happens, and the Bitcoin community has enough time to prepare. They expect that demand from both large institutions and retail investors will be strong enough to support higher transaction fees, ensuring network security. However, experts also warn that there may be challenges related to power concentration and system adaptability.
Challenges of 2140: What happens when Bitcoin loses its subsidies?
For over a century, block rewards have been the "key" to ensuring the security of the Bitcoin network. This reward incentivizes miners to validate transactions and mine new Bitcoins, serving as both motivation and a mechanism for maintaining the network's decentralization and security.
But by 2140, Bitcoin will eventually be fully mined, meaning that block subsidies will completely disappear.
"Once the final block reward is gone, the overall security of the Bitcoin network will rely entirely on transaction fees. The key question then will be how the demand for block space will grow," said Gracie Lin, CEO of OKX in Singapore.
Experts believe that if demand for Bitcoin continues to grow as it is now, transaction fees may naturally fill the gap and ensure network security even without block subsidies.
Potential for price increase: Optimistic scenario
The increasing utility of Bitcoin, coupled with rising demand and the drive for large transactions, may naturally form a strong fee market capable of sustaining network security in the long term. As the Bitcoin ecosystem continues to evolve, transaction fees may rise in a sustainable manner.
"By 2140, Bitcoin may become an indispensable digital infrastructure in global finance. Large transactions will naturally incur significant fees. It's like high-end real estate; when something is both scarce and important, people are willing to pay a high price," emphasized Sammi Li, co-founder and CEO of JuCoin.
Confidence in this situation comes from the increasing involvement of large institutions. Once these institutions incorporate Bitcoin into their business, it will create stable demand for on-chain transactions, becoming a reliable source of income for miners.
The large-scale transactions from these institutions will be key to a healthy fee market, making high fees reasonable and ensuring long-term stability.
"Institutional fund transfers, cross-border payments, and large second-layer transactions will drive everyday demand. The adoption of Bitcoin and central bank digital currencies by businesses will create a stable flow of high-value transactions that can offset high fees," Li added.
Additionally, the supporting infrastructure for the network will also develop naturally. Future second-layer solutions will be a crucial factor in ensuring Bitcoin's long-term sustainability.
Second Layer Enhancing the Bitcoin Network
Second-layer protocols, most famously the Lightning Network, aim to address the limitations of Bitcoin's scalability. By processing small and frequent transactions off the main blockchain, these solutions can reduce congestion, lower transaction fees, and ensure the efficiency of daily operations.
"The role of the second layer is crucial. It not only expands the capacity for everyday use but also maintains the simplicity and value of the Bitcoin main chain. Thanks to user-friendly connection gateways, the Lightning Network and similar improvements make Bitcoin suitable for both small and large transactions. At the same time, centralized exchanges continue to attract new users, adding liquidity to the ecosystem," noted Lior Aizik, CEO of XBO.
Moreover, these second-layer solutions could stimulate traffic back to the main chain rather than diminish its value.
"The second layer can indeed create more valuable activities for the main chain. Opening and closing Lightning channels requires transactions on the blockchain, and new solutions are opening up entirely new types of high-value transactions," Li explained.
However, this process still carries risks. For the second layer to succeed, it must generate enough transaction fees to sustain the Bitcoin network's sustainability and ensure security.
Will the charging model undermine the security of Bitcoin?
Although many believe that Bitcoin's long-term utility can help maintain network security even without block subsidies, some experts warn that completely shifting to a model reliant on transaction fees is not without problems. In fact, maintaining long-term security could face significant challenges.
If transaction fees do not steadily increase with usage demand, the incentive for miners to make money may decline. When rewards decrease and fees do not compensate, some miners may exit the network, leading to a drop in hash rate. This could weaken the Bitcoin network's resilience and attack resistance, posing risks to the entire ecosystem.
"Bitcoin's security budget will slowly be eroded, reducing the security incentives of the network. In the worst-case scenario, a significant portion of mining power — possibly reaching 20% to 30% — may cease operations, just like the hash rate shocks that occurred in the past due to declining mining profits or regulatory changes," Lin said.
In addition, the unstable fluctuations of transaction fees can threaten the decentralization of Bitcoin. Small miners find it difficult to maintain operational costs when profits are low, which may lead them to exit. At that time, the network may become more concentrated in the hands of a few large miners or mining organizations, undermining Bitcoin's core principles: decentralization and resistance to centralized control.
Therefore, while the charging model is a necessary step for Bitcoin's sustainable operation after 2140, ensuring that it does not undermine security and decentralization is an important challenge that the community and developers must address early.
Can Bitcoin maintain its commitment to decentralization?
Decentralization is one of the core principles that makes Bitcoin a secure and reliable network. However, if the transaction fee market becomes unpredictable, mining power (hash rate) may concentrate in the hands of a few miners or large organizations, directly threatening this principle.
"If transaction fees are insufficient to support independent small miners, the Bitcoin network may become more centralized — which would undermine one of its fundamental principles," Aizik stated.
If the charging model fails, it will not only affect network security but could also have serious consequences for Bitcoin's role in the global economy. If the network loses its ability to operate stably, Bitcoin's reputation as a reliable store of value will also suffer, causing investors and businesses to lose confidence.
"Aizik further warned: 'Bitcoin could become an exhibit in a museum rather than a vibrant ecosystem, with limited transaction and circulation capabilities.'"
Fortunately, the Bitcoin community has over a century — about 115 years — to plan, experiment, and prepare solutions to protect decentralization, ensuring that even without block subsidies, the network can continue to operate stably.
Advance Planning
Despite the potential risks associated with the charging model and maintaining decentralization, leaders in the Bitcoin industry remain optimistic about the network's future. They unanimously believe that Bitcoin's inherent design, combined with a passionate community and a thriving ecosystem, will enable the network to successfully transition to a model that relies entirely on transaction fees, without undermining security or value.
"When the risks are high enough, the pricing efficiency of the securities market will be very high. If Bitcoin can maintain its value in 2140, economic factors will self-adjust to protect that value. A longer transition time allows the community to gradually adapt, avoiding sudden shocks, and maintaining network stability," Li commented.
Aizik agrees with this view and emphasizes the need to discuss this issue early to demonstrate that this model is feasible. He points out:
"The industry needs passionate organizations to participate in the development process — supporting the next generation of users while respecting the core principles of Bitcoin."
By continuing to foster a forward-looking spirit and responsible community participation, the future of Bitcoin will be in the hands of reliable individuals who are willing to protect, operate, and develop the network, ensuring that Bitcoin remains a decentralized and reliable financial infrastructure for decades to come.
