The cryptocurrency market will eliminate 90% of individual investors, and this number may reach 99%; this is not alarmism.
Every industry must go through a period of rapid growth to maturity, inevitably experiencing the stages of dividend, development, saturation, micro-profit, and decline.
The cryptocurrency market is the same; the true dividend period was the 2017 bull market. Before 2017, very few people knew about it, and although there were complete bull markets, the scale was pitifully small. At that time, the three major exchanges had not yet been established. If you want to find K-lines from 2013-14-15-16, you can only view them on a few foreign exchanges like Bitfinex.
The real time when more ordinary people entered was 2017. During this process, countless Ponzi schemes played a crucial role. If you ask today, many people know about cryptocurrencies because they entered through various Ponzi schemes.
The characteristic of the dividend period is that anyone, even those completely ignorant of the industry, will become wealthy the moment they step into the industry as the tide rises. In the 2017 bull market, there were about 100 coins in the entire market, but today, the number of various coins has exceeded 10 million.
At that time, buying any coin would see funds being circulated. There wasn't a single coin that didn't increase tenfold or twentyfold; the dark horses of that era were all starting from a hundred times, such as EOS. The highest was a thousand times, like AntShares (later Neo); it didn't require much recognition, just enough enthusiasm, and ultimately, all saw significant increases.
By 2021, the industry entered a development phase where developers attempted to realize more possibilities on Ethereum. This led to DeFi, bringing a second wave of wealth explosion. However, the excitement of 2017 is long gone, and the rare hundred-fold coins are now scarce, with many new coins rising 10-20 times from seed rounds to exchange listings. During this time, high-quality coins like Solana emerged, which could innovate and reach new highs in two rounds.
The overall development phase shows a downward trend compared to the bull market. One can conclude this by looking at the average increase of the entire DeFi sector compared to the average increase of most coins in 2017.
By 2025, the market will enter a saturation phase, showing a more pronounced downward trend compared to the development phase. The number of coins will grow exponentially, and since the global population remains roughly unchanged, the influx of fresh blood cannot increase proportionately. At this point, Bitcoin will have become widely known; those who needed to enter have already done so, and the influx of new participants will significantly shrink. The total number of coins in the market, according to incomplete statistics, has exceeded 10 million, diluting the market to the point where it can no longer support the spring of altcoins.
The past logic of making money by investing in small coins to achieve a hundred or thousand times return is no longer valid after this round of bull market. Currently, 80% of people in the cryptocurrency circle profit by holding small coins and waiting for an explosion, but this group will be eliminated first.
As a side note, those who thought 'holding and allocating' would make them rich in 2017 and had four-digit amounts of Bitcoin have resurfaced this year to reap profits.
The essence of this matter is that the mindset of hoarding coins has developed to the point where it is no longer profitable in the cryptocurrency market, leading to losses and zero returns. However, due to their past luck or opportunities, they used the Bitcoins they earned to allocate a large number of so-called value potential coins before each bull market.
The greatest ability of this group is to read various project white papers. When they allocate altcoins using Bitcoin during the bull market and exchange for innovative concepts during the development stage, they succeed in both rounds. Habitually, during the saturation phase, they continue to apply the same logic, even increasing their stakes to exchange for a pile of altcoins as allocation.
Finally, the 2025 bull market gave them a harsh lesson, and they suddenly realized that this market cannot always rely on altcoins to become wealthy. This round of bull market has returned many four-digit Bitcoin holders to their original state, as they inherently believe that each round of allocating various altcoins will ultimately earn them more Bitcoin. However, this round of bull market has harvested them.
I can only say that the only constant in this world is continuous change.
The second type of people: new investors.
New investors rely on information to find projects that have not yet been listed on exchanges or are just starting to raise funds, participating early in project issuance. This group has a certain level of technical knowledge and must master various wallets and decentralized exchange usage. However, this group is also starting to lose money, as most new projects plummet after launch; the number of people in this group is limited due to technical barriers.
There is another group of people who put their coins on exchanges to earn interest, but in a bull market, many people disdain those returns.
Pure trading technicalists face the head effect more intensely; those who do not perform well will be eliminated early. This is real money experiencing the market, and they must at least reach a break-even point to survive.
The groups mentioned above account for 99% of retail investors in the cryptocurrency market, while the remaining 1% are at the top of the food chain, such as exchange operators and technical experts (coin issuers).
The change in the underlying logic of making money in this circle will leave many who previously relied on hoarding coins and new investments feeling lost. However, they will have to search for a way out in the cryptocurrency market, ultimately leading them back to the technical route.
Initially, this group did not have high hopes for technical analysis; they believed studying technology was useless. Most of this group adheres to the random walk theory or lacks patience; they attribute their profits to their abilities during the era of dividends, forming a path dependence. They believe the technical route is too slow and simply accept that the market is random, thinking that successful trading techniques always belong to the top 1%. This group believes that dedicating time to research technology is a waste because they subconsciously do not think they can become that 1%. The path to the top 1% is arduous, and they cannot endure that hardship. Eventually, as the market enters the development phase, to continue making money, they must experience all the hardships they have not faced before and retrace paths they have not walked.
In the end, the market will prove their true strength; these are people riding the elevator of the times, not merely individuals' abilities.
With more professional institutions participating, the market will become more complex and smoother. Competitors have shifted from individuals to professional institutions, making the difficulty increase exponentially, as evidenced by the current bull market.
The vast majority (over 99%) of individual investors in the cryptocurrency market are among the types mentioned above.
Those who rode the wave of the era in 2017 took a domineering path, which has begun to backfire today. Meanwhile, those who have diligently studied technology since then and have gained practical experience in the market over the years have taken a kingly path; the longer the time, the greater the value.
In the future market, the vibrant spring of altcoins is gone, and the probability of simply holding coins to bet on a hundred or thousand times return is becoming increasingly low. The main force's trading methods are becoming more professional and specialized, and opponents have shifted from the past simple and crude price increases to complex and varied deceptive operations. The market will only become more complex and harder to grasp, entering a micro-profit era for cryptocurrencies.
I will prove that the technical route is the most powerful path for ordinary people to advance by demonstrating a complete bull market from the bear market to the next bull market.
These four years have been divided into two phases to complete god-like operations: one phase involved holding short positions for a year during the bear market, and the other involved holding long positions for three years during the bull market. Without a profound understanding of the overall market situation, this is absolutely unachievable.
I have trained many apprentices. After more than a month of face-to-face training, one has independently opened a studio in Guangzhou to manage assets for clients. Therefore, there is no need to think that I want to sell a system; the system will not be sold.
Anyone can rely on luck to get a long position in a bull or bear market, but I am sure that the two major issues of adding positions and setting stop-losses cannot be done by luck. Those who have read my articles know that the stop-loss I provide will not be hit, and adding positions is precise; it must be done at a point where you leave. This is a complete strategic layout...
