The candlestick chart looks like an electrocardiogram, indicating that both bulls and bears are waiting for the Federal Reserve's verdict.

This morning I opened the four-hour ETH chart, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed so much that they can crush flies, with the upper band at 4641 and the lower band at 4318, the price is fluctuating around the middle band at 4480. I'm very familiar with this kind of movement; last August, before the Fed turned hawkish, ETH also played dead like this, and the news caused a direct surge of 12%. Right now, the market is like a student flipping through books in the last minute before an exam, just waiting for Powell to highlight key points tonight at the Jackson Hole meeting.

Latest news interpretation

1. Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are intensifying

The meeting minutes leaked early this morning show that some members believe "inflation stickiness is exaggerated," which explains why ETH spiked to 4435 last night and quickly pulled back. However, this morning the yield on the US ten-year treasury suddenly soared to 4.3%, indicating that large funds are still betting on "higher for longer."

2. Whale account anomalies

On-chain monitoring detected a mysterious address (starting with 0x7f3) continuously buying 32,000 ETH in the 4450-4470 range, such operations often occur within 24 hours before a trend change. Remember that surge in June? A giant whale accumulated 50,000 when the price was flat at 4300, and two weeks later the price shot up to 4800.

3. The options market reveals clues

Deribit data shows that the open interest for ETH call options with a strike price of 4500 has surged by 37%, but the put options with a strike price of 4400 are also piling up. This kind of "long-short confrontation" usually indicates that professional institutions are laying out a dual breakout strategy.

Practical handbook for veteran traders

Case 1: Before last month's CPI announcement, ETH was also stuck at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. At that time, I shouted in the community "Stabilize at 4350 and go long with your eyes closed," later achieving an 8% increase in a single day. Now the same script applies — 4480 is today's lifeline.

Case 2: The day before yesterday, a fan asked me "Should I chase the rise?" I told him to look at the BBI indicator (currently 4479). The price has been running below the BBI for more than 6 candlesticks, according to historical data, this situation usually leads to at least a 3% inertial increase after breaking the middle band.

Today's operation guide

Radicals: Build a small observation position at the current price of 4450, add to positions on a breakout above 4480, stop loss at 4420 (falling below yesterday's low would mean a false breakout).

Conservatives: Place two conditional orders — a buy order at 4398 (for spike), and a breakout buy order at 4520 (with a $20 trailing stop).

Buddhist-style party: Hold onto your spot and wait for September, the staking APY for ETH 2.0 has risen to 5.2%, just earning interest can outpace inflation.

Ultimate prediction

I personally lean towards the "crash then rise" scenario: Powell is likely to first emphasize his determination against inflation to scare the market, and then soften the tone of "data dependence" once ETH drops to around 4350. This tactic was used once in July when the volatility reached 18%.

Remember: When the Bollinger Bands narrow to this extent, the subsequent move will either be a sharp rise or a sharp drop. Make sure not to exhaust your bullets before the breakout. Keep some positions, get ready with beer and fried chicken at 21:30 tonight (Powell's speech time), this could be the last major feast for bulls and bears in August.

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