When Bitcoin's market share approaches 60%, there are only two scenarios in the market: either Bitcoin continues to rise, or altcoins make a desperate counterattack.
Latest data shows that the total market cap of cryptocurrencies remains at a high of $3.89 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $170 billion. However, a closer look reveals that Bitcoin continues to dominate the market with an absolute advantage of 58.9%, a figure that is close to a two-year high. In this market condition, the most concerning question for investors is: Will funds continue to flow into Bitcoin, or will they start rotating into altcoins?
1. Why can Bitcoin dominate the market?
1. Institutional funds continue to flow in.
The holdings of Bitcoin ETFs by traditional financial institutions like BlackRock have reached new highs, indicating that large funds still see Bitcoin as 'digital gold' for allocation.
2. The halving effect is gradually becoming apparent.
Historically, after Bitcoin halving, a main upward trend often occurs 6-8 months later. Currently, it has been 4 months since the fourth halving, and the pressure from miners is continuously decreasing.
3. The recognition of safe-haven properties.
Against the backdrop of rising tensions in the Middle East and increased volatility in the U.S. stock market, Bitcoin demonstrates a low correlation advantage with traditional assets.
2. The dilemma and opportunities for altcoins.
Current predicament:
In the bear market of Bitcoin, 80% of the top 50 altcoins underperform BTC.
Market funds are concentrated in meme coins and other short-term hotspots, while value-based projects are experiencing a downturn.
Turning point signals:
1. When Bitcoin's market share surpasses 60%, funds often begin to overflow.
2. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is close to the year's low, increasing the probability of a rebound.
3. Some quality altcoins are starting to show signs of major accumulation.
3. How should ordinary investors respond?
Conservative strategy:
Maintain Bitcoin as a core position (recommended over 50%).
Allocate 10-20% of funds to mainstream altcoins like ETH and SOL.
Remaining funds are waiting for clear market reversal signals.
Aggressive strategy:
Pay close attention to changes in Bitcoin's market share; start accumulating altcoins in batches after breaking 60%.
Focus on two types of targets:
Undervalued quality public chains (like AVAX, MATIC).
DeFi protocols with actual income (like UNI, AAVE).
In the cryptocurrency market, patience is more important than technology. Instead of chasing highs and lows every day, it’s better to wait for the right moment. What is most needed now is to prepare your fund pool and observation checklist; once Bitcoin starts to consolidate, it will be the time for altcoins to perform.
(Do you believe Bitcoin will continue to lead, or will altcoins soon have a comeback? Feel free to share your holding strategies in the comments section!)
