As market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September continue to rise, Bitcoin has once again set a record, reaching a high of $124,347, an increase of 3.64%, before slightly retreating to $123,868.
Analysts point out that the core driving force behind this round of increase is the optimistic expectations of loose policies. CME's 'FedWatch' tool shows that the probability of a September rate cut is as high as 93.7%. Although the overall CPI in the U.S. increased by only 2.7% year-on-year in July, lower than expected, the core CPI still recorded 3.1%, slightly higher than market expectations, which has kept Fed Chairman Powell cautious, emphasizing the need to observe long-term inflation trends.
Market participants believe that before the September interest rate decision, Bitcoin prices may remain highly sensitive to any new policy signals.
Meanwhile, Ethereum also benefited from optimistic sentiment, with prices rising 2.3% to $4,717, gradually approaching the historical high point of 2021.
Institutional demand has become another major force driving the market. Data shows that in the past month, Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted over $3.6 billion in inflows, while corporations and sovereign wealth funds collectively hold more than 3.64 million BTC, accounting for over 17%. This pattern of 'structural demand + scarce supply' is referred to in the industry as the 'perfect storm' driving the market.
Analysts generally expect that Bitcoin still has room for further upward movement before the end of the year, likely oscillating in the range of $120,000 to $125,000 in the short term. With the firm positioning of institutions and long-term holders, Bitcoin and Ethereum are gradually becoming 'essential assets' in core investment portfolios.
