📉📈 Bitcoin Evening Trend Prediction & Trading Strategy on August 16th
🔥 Current Market Key Points:
1️⃣ Macroeconomic Negative: US PPI inflation data exceeds expectations (YoY +3.3%), the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September drops to 90.5%, BTC plunges 7% in a single day, with $930 million liquidated.
2️⃣ Technical Disagreement:
· Bearish: Breaking below 117,000 support, a double top pattern may form in the short term, 4-hour chart is weak.
· Bullish: Monthly MACD golden cross (first time in 5 years), funds flow back to BTC (accounting for 59.35%).
🎯 Key Price Levels (Keep an Eye On!)
· Support: 117,000 (psychological level) → 115,000-112,500 (breaking below may accelerate the decline).
· Resistance: 119,500-120,000 (breaking through is necessary to turn strong) → 122,500-124,000 (breaking through, look at 127K+).
📉 Evening Trend Prediction
· Short-term (1-4 hours): May continue to fluctuate downwards, if it cannot stand firm at 118,000 (9-day moving average), it may retest 116,400.
· Potential Rebound: If market sentiment improves after the US stock market opens, it may rebound briefly to 119,500.
· Mid-term Direction: Closing price stands firm at 120,000 → bullish; breaking below 115,000 → look at 112,300.
💡 Trading Strategies (Two Options)
✅ Conservative: Wait for a breakthrough of 120,000 or a break below 115,000 before taking action to avoid being shaken out by fluctuations.
🚀 Aggressive:
· Short-term Shorting: Lightly short 119,000-120,000, stop loss at 120,600, target 116,000.
· Buying Opportunity: Buy in batches when it falls to 115,000-112,500, stop loss at 111,000, target 118,000.
⚠️ Risk Reminder
· High Volatility Warning: May experience drastic fluctuations in the short term, operate with caution!
· Event Risk: Pay attention to hawkish economic data & geopolitical issues (such as the follow-up impact of the "Putin-Xi meeting").
📌 Conclusion: Tonight is likely to be weak with fluctuations, but oversold conditions may lead to a rebound! Strict stop loss, keep an eye on the breakout direction of 115,000-120,000!
