After 5 days of ultra-narrow accumulation, the high-level accumulation of big cakes ushered in a qualitative change in structure:
As early as mid-February, after we drew the [overall balance line of the high-level structure], the strategy predicted that if this line breaks, the price will face a greater bearish opportunity.
But the price rebounded quickly here and set a new high in this round.
After 22 trading days, the price broke through the [overall balance line of the high structure] earlier today. At present, the overall high-level accumulation structure presents an "M" head, which is a kind of top bearish pattern.
In summary, the recent prices and strategies are centered around a bearish layout. Please see the operation section below for details.
In addition, the US dollar index, the initiator of the daily structure breakdown, has resistance at 106.1 according to previous strategies. The current highest is 15.88, which has not been reached yet. This will also give Friday's non-agricultural data a certain room for negotiation.
At the same time, please note that the slowdown and termination of the Bitcoin retracement requires reference to the specific trend of the U.S. dollar index after it comes under pressure as an auxiliary means of judgment.
The breakout has come, but it hasn't been very dramatic so far. Assuming that the possibility of this being a "fake line" is ruled out, the expected bearish market conditions this time are:
A breakout from the 23300-22860 range is a leading signal
The confirmation signal is [high-level structure overall balance line]
Breaking through 21852 is a signal to add positions
The first target of future retracement will be at 20777, which is about 5.6% away from the current price.
While the above conclusions are still in their early stages, let’s take a quick look back at [The pattern has been opened up — the benefits of the big pie returning to the “1” era! ]
Finally, for the two-way expectations of bulls and bears, the current breakdown has become an fait accompli. If a [deceptive line action] occurs, the current short-term chips should be executed according to the following operating rules.
Bullish direction: There is no collective bullish recommendation before it rebounds to 22866.
Short direction: Refer to the recent strategy, 22860 is short chips, refer to the above slight correction: risk control to 22659. 21852 is used as a signal to increase positions, and the first target is 20777.
In addition, the strategy of about 5X, which is triggered by 21858 and has an interval of 18165-23191 and a bearish grid with 66 grids, has been triggered and is currently continuing to run.
Range operation direction: Strategy package [long spot or long low leverage: 22250 to 28000, geometric ratio, quantity 46] has currently achieved a fixed income of more than 26%, and the current real-time income is 7%.
Because the price has broken out of the range, the strategy is currently in a stopped state. Pay attention to the trend. The strategy may be stopped in the near future.
Good night.
