First, check 'Is the foundation solid?'
On the daily chart, during the rise of ETH from 1800 to 4400, two key supports were established: 3800 USD is the area of concentrated positions from last year's fourth quarter, and 4100 USD is the low point of this month's pullback. Every time it hits 4100 in the past two weeks, it bounces back, indicating that large funds are quietly accumulating in this range.
But be cautious, 5000 USD is not only a round number, but also a psychological pressure point from the peak of the 2021 bull market. From the distribution of positions, there are many trapped positions between 4800-5200, just like climbing stairs to the last few steps, each move requires effort.
Let's look at 'Is there enough ammunition?'
The ETH balance on exchanges has been decreasing recently, dropping by 230,000 coins in the last 30 days, equivalent to 1 billion USD leaving custody – this is usually a signal of long-term funds locking in. More importantly, ETH staked on the beacon chain has surpassed 28 million coins, valued at over 120 billion USD at current prices, making the likelihood of these positions being dumped in the short term very low.
However, the futures market is a bit subtle: the funding rate for perpetual contracts has been positive for three consecutive days, indicating that bullish sentiment is overheated. Historical experience tells us that when the funding rate exceeds 0.15%, a short-term pullback often occurs. It is currently at 0.12%, not far from the warning line.
Lastly, check 'Has the wind direction changed?'
After the Ethereum 2.0 Shanghai upgrade was completed, the unlocking pressure was much less than expected, and the stable staking yields have attracted a lot of institutional capital. Recently, Grayscale's ETH trust premium has turned positive, indicating that Wall Street has started to re-accumulate.
However, there is a hidden risk on the macro front: If the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals in next week's interest rate meeting, a rebound in the dollar could drain liquidity from the crypto market. In 2021, ETH's surge to 4800 was abruptly halted by the Fed's sudden interest rate hike.
My judgment is: 5000 USD is not the endpoint, but the process will likely not be smooth sailing. If it can hold above 4500 this week, the probability of breaking 5000 next month exceeds 70%; if it falls below 4100, we need to wait for a pullback to 3800 to look for opportunities.
Remember, major trends in the crypto space are never announced, they are established step by step by capital. Rather than guessing the top now, it's better to set a moving stop-loss – for example, starting from 4500, move the stop-loss up by 300 USD for every 500 USD increase, letting the profits run.
Reply 'ETH' in the background to receive the real-time monitoring tool for the three key levels I organized; keeping an eye on these numbers is more reliable than listening to calls.
If you get trapped, you can look for @分析师方金
