Analysts generally agree that the current Bitcoin market cycle is expected to peak around Q4 2025, with many pinpointing October as a likely month for the top. This projection is based on historical patterns and cycle metrics:
Bitcoin’s previous bull markets peaked approximately 18 months (around 518 days) after the halving event. The latest halving occurred in mid-April 2024, indicating a cycle peak likely around mid to late October 2025.
Around this time, Bitcoin historically enters a “parabolic rally” phase, often referred to as the final 10-week “banana zone,” where prices can surge rapidly in a short span.
Analysts highlight that Bitcoin is currently close to entering this phase, suggesting a strong upside rally could commence soon, potentially pushing prices to new highs.
Price targets vary, with some forecasts like the stock-to-flow model envisioning prices around $368,000 by the end of 2025, while others expect a peak near $135,000 to $150,000 as a more conservative near-term target.
Institutional buying, especially through Bitcoin ETFs, has absorbed over 1.2 million BTC since January 2024, which may reduce market supply and help support higher prices during the peak rally.
However, some analysts caution that external events or market dynamics could alter the timing of the peak, so while the historical model points to Q4 2025, flexibility is advised.
In summary, the consensus places the Bitcoin market cycle peak most likely in October 2025, with strong potential for a significant price rally leading up to that point, supported by historical cycles and ongoing institutional demand. This phase will be crucial for BTC’s trajectory and may mark the top for this bull cycle before a subsequent correction or consolidation phase.
