Noted analyst Crypto Burp sees that the current Bitcoin bull cycle, which started from the bottom on November 21, 2022, has lasted 997 days so far, indicating it is entering its final phase. Based on previous cycle patterns, this cycle is expected to last between 1,060 and 1,100 days, placing the peak between October 15 and November 15, 2022.
Compared to previous cycles
Historical Bitcoin cycles have shown variability in duration: the 2010-2011 cycle lasted about 350 days, the 2011-2013 cycle around 746 days, the 2015-2017 cycle extended to 1,068 days, and the 2018-2021 cycle recorded about 1,061 days. This pattern supports the expectation that the current peak will occur in the last quarter of 2025.
The relationship with halving events
When analyzing the time periods between Bitcoin halvings and the subsequent peaks, we find that the 2012 cycle peaked after 366 days, the 2016 cycle after 526 days, and the 2020 cycle after 548 days. Based on the 2024 cycle, the expected peak will be after 518 to 580 days from the halving, which is between October 19 and November 20, 2025.
Months of historical peaks
Historically, the months of October and November have been the strongest performing for Bitcoin, with notable dates such as October 20, 22, 27, and 29, where Burp suggests October 22 could be an important price breakout point.
Influential political and economic factors
The alignment of the current cycle with the U.S. presidential elections, along with the supply scarcity resulting from the halving, reinforces the hypothesis of reaching new all-time highs. Major political events, combined with supply shortages, often stimulate strong upward movements in the market.
After the peak: the expected bear market in 2026
Previous patterns indicate that bear markets last between 370 and 410 days, with an average decline of 66% from the peak. If the scenario repeats, a downturn could begin in 2026, prompting analysts to recommend exit strategies before the end of 2025 to secure profits.
Warnings of changing market patterns
Despite the strength of historical indicators, some experts warn that traditional Bitcoin cycles may change due to institutional factors and unexpected risks, which could reshape the future bear market.
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