$ETH at $4,557 – Will the bulls reclaim $4.7k, or is a deeper correction ahead?

1) Current Market Situation – 15.08.2025

$ETH is currently holding around $4,557, marking a clear pullback from yesterday’s highs near $4,788. The market is in a cautious waiting phase – bulls are defending key support levels while bears are trying to take advantage of the fading bullish momentum.

1H Timeframe

  • RSI: ~53 – No clear dominance; the market is balanced in a neutral zone.

  • MACD: Flat setup, histogram near zero – indicating hesitation about the next direction.

  • Volume: Moderate, clearly lower than during yesterday’s breakout candles, suggesting consolidation.

  • Fibonacci (swing: $4,464 → $4,788):

    • 38.2% – $4,615 – first resistance for buyers (a break could trigger a rapid rally).

    • 50.0% – $4,626 – equilibrium level, often marking short-term trend direction.

    • 61.8% – $4,638 – a key technical level; holding above could strengthen bullish sentiment.

4H Timeframe

  • $ETH price remains above $4,550, acting as local support.

  • RSI: ~56 – Slight bullish advantage, but without strong momentum.

  • MACD: Positive, though the histogram is shrinking, signaling slowing upward momentum.

  • The same Fibonacci levels are valid in the higher timeframe, confirming their importance.

2) Yesterday’s Recap – 14.08.2025

Thursday’s session brought a strong rally from $4,550 to around $4,788 (+5.1%), fueled by record inflows into ETH ETFs and growing optimism over Ethereum’s leading role in the smart contract space.

1H Chart

  • RSI: 60–65 – temporary overbought conditions.

  • MACD: Strongly bullish, but started signaling possible correction toward the end of the day.

  • Volume: Significant surge during breakout, followed by gradual decline during consolidation.

4H Chart

  • Attempt to break above $4,780–4,790 halted within that resistance zone.

  • RSI: ~62 – bullish advantage, but showing signs of fatigue.

  • MACD: Positive, yet histogram began contracting, hinting at slowing momentum.

3) Volume Analysis

  • Largest daily long liquidation: $348.9M – suggesting profit-taking among leveraged traders.

  • Record ETF inflows: over $3B – confirming strong institutional demand despite short-term pullbacks.

  • Current volume activity reflects a battle between long-term investors and short-term speculators – fundamentals still favor the bullish trend.

4) Forecast

Bullish scenario:

If ETH regains and holds $4,615–4,638 with rising volume, it could return to the $4,780–4,800 resistance zone, and a breakout here may open the way toward $4,900.

Bearish scenario:

A drop below $4,550 with increasing selling volume could lead to a test of $4,500, and if pressure continues – a move toward $4,450–4,400.

5) LONG Scenario

  • Entry: 1H candle close above $4,615

  • Stop Loss: $4,550

  • TP1: $4,780

  • TP2: $4,900

  • TP3: $5,000
    Recommendation: Preferable if the breakout comes with volume clearly above the 7-day average and RSI >55.

6) SHORT Scenario

  • Entry: 1H candle close below $4,550

  • Stop Loss: $4,600

  • TP1: $4,500

  • TP2: $4,450

  • TP3: $4,400
    Recommendation: Consider only if selling volume increases and RSI drops below 45.

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