The Bollinger Bands have contracted to their limit, with ETH repeatedly testing the 4640 level—this isn't sideways trading, it's the calm before the storm!

Market Update

The 30-minute chart shows ETH walking a tightrope:

Price is fluctuating in a very narrow range between 4621-4634 (with an amplitude of only 0.29%). The upper and lower Bollinger Bands (20,2) are only 41 points apart (4652-4611), even tighter than before the surge on August 10th. The MACD retraced its golden cross (DIF 9.33/DEA 10.48) just moments after it formed. The -2.29 green bar reveals a lack of bullish momentum.

1. Trading volume has shrunk to 14,760, less than a quarter of the MA5 average (58,688).

2. The price tested the key 4640 level three times but failed.

The 3.4570 support level forms a strategic buffer zone with the August options' biggest pain point of 4500.

News Analysis

A trifecta of US economic shocks disrupted the market's rhythm:

Retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month (0.5% above expectations): Consumers are still frantically shopping, and the probability of a September rate cut has plummeted to zero. The New York Fed Manufacturing Index rose 5.5% (previous value: 0%): Factory orders have suddenly "resurfaced." The Import Price Index rose 0.1% (previous value: 0%): The specter of imported inflation has emerged.

These data are like three knives on ETH's neck: a healthy economy → rising expectations of rate hikes → a rebound in the US dollar → pressure on the crypto market.

Eagle Practical Strategy

Gold Case Study: The August 10th surge from 4570 to 4794 was a double act of a narrowing Bollinger Band and weaker-than-expected PPI data. The current technical formation is more robust, but the volume is only a quarter of what it was then.

Eagle's View

Break through 4640 and hold steady in the 1-hour session: Go long with a light position (target 4690)

Break below 4611 lower Bollinger Band: Watch for support at 4570

Beware of the "MACD smirk": Divergence without volume = a bull trap. The weekly RSI on the $ETH chart is sharpening its knife in the neutral zone of 54. The biggest pain point of August options at 4500 is just around the corner—are market makers using data to sell options or forcing prices to pump?

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Remember! The market isn't wrong, we are! I'm an eagle.

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