Rational Analysis: Short Selling Logic of the ALPINE Project

As an emerging modular Layer2 solution, ALPINE's short-term valuation shows a significant bubble. Through multidimensional analysis, we believe the project faces the following risks:

Significant Valuation Bubble

Market capitalization reaches 50%-70% of leading Layer2 projects, while actual TVL is only 12% of the industry average, with daily active addresses below 5000 and continuously declining.

Token Economic Risks

Circulation is only 15%, with 8% unlocked monthly for early investors over the next 6 months, and the holding cost is only $0.05. Historically, similar projects have seen an average decline of 25%-35% during the unlocking period.

Ecological Development Lag

Core code submission has decreased by 40% quarterly, major application TVL has dropped by 65% from its peak, and net outflow of cross-chain funds exceeds $12 million.

Technical Implementation Challenges

The testnet has experienced multiple block reorganizations, DA layer performance lags competitors by 30%, and security audits have not been fully covered.

Risk Warning:

Market recovery may trigger a rebound; project parties may release positive news to stabilize liquidity risks that need to be monitored.

It is recommended to adopt a cautious hedging strategy and focus on key support levels. The long-term technical narrative still holds potential, but there is a short-term correction space of 20%-30%. #美联储取消创新活动监管计划