"When the Fed chairman speaks, the crypto market trembles — Powell's August 22 speech might be the most dangerous 'life and death scenario' for the crypto market in 2025!"

Why is this speech 'nuclear bomb level'?

The Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting is considered the 'policy trailer' for the Fed. In 2022, Powell took a hawkish stance here, stating 'Inflation isn't dead, and rate hikes won't stop', which directly triggered a global asset crash, halving Bitcoin's value in six months; in 2013, Bernanke hinted at QE3 here, causing gold to soar 9% in a month.

This year is even more dangerous: Trump calls for interest rate cuts every day, even stating he wants to 'replace the Fed chairman'; the US unemployment rate has surged to a four-year high, but inflation still sticks above 3%; the market has gone 'crazy' — a 89% probability of rate cuts in September, as if the Fed will start easing tomorrow.

But history tells us: Powell's words are deceptive. In his first 6 major speeches, the S&P 500 dropped 5 times, averaging a decline of over 3%. If he 'changes face' again this time, Bitcoin could directly break through the $100,000 support level, and altcoins will bleed profusely.

Three scenarios, which one is the most deadly?

1. Hawkish Surprise (40% probability): Bitcoin 'flash crash' warning

If Powell says 'inflation isn't dead yet, don’t rush to cut rates', the market would collapse instantly.

2. Dovish Delusion (30% probability): Short-term revelry, long-term landmines

If Powell clearly states 'September rate cut', Bitcoin could surge to $150,000, but don’t celebrate too soon — 'Buy the rumor, sell the news' is an old Wall Street trick.

3. Ambiguous Tai Chi (30% probability): Institutions' 'harvesting' feast

The most likely scenario is that Powell plays Tai Chi: 'Rate cuts depend on data, no rush to state'. This kind of 'expectation management' essentially makes the market guess for itself, causing volatility (VIX) to soar, resulting in a double explosion of bulls and bears.

History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes — In 2013, Bernanke ignited QE3, and gold soared; in 2022, Powell's hawkish stance caused the Nasdaq to crash. This time, when the White House starts calculating 'buy BTC to fill the treasury', and sovereign fund crypto allocations soar to 1.2%, Powell's speech on August 22 might not just be a turning point for the crypto circle, but also a signal of 'surrender' for traditional finance.