"What the market fears most is not a crash, but the silence of even breathing — Ethereum is walking a tightrope between $4280-$4380, where both sides are breathing with tension!"

The current market is like ants moving before a storm.

Recently, Ethereum's market resembles watching ants move as a child while squatting in the corner — clearly knowing it will rain, but no one knows when the first raindrop will fall. The price has been grinding in the narrow range of $4280-$4380 for an entire night; behind this "still water" is both sides holding back their big moves:

  • Bulls: Focus on the "lifeline" at $4380; as long as it breaks through, it can open the way to $4560;

  • Bears: Defend yesterday's low point at $4280; if it breaks, it will trigger a stop-loss rush, targeting the "abyss" at $4180 or even $3995.

Personal opinion: This narrow fluctuation is like a spring being compressed to the extreme; when it erupts, it will either bounce straight up (break $4380) or completely collapse (break $4280).

Two major undercurrents are stirring the market

  1. The "damp cannon" effect of geopolitics
    Last night, Trump met with Zelensky, yet the market didn't even ripple — ETH price volatility was less than 1%. What does this indicate?The market has become immune to "verbal games".!

  2. The "dark move" of the whales
    Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke transferred 5,200 ETH (approximately $9.57 million) to exchanges yesterday. Movements of whales at this level often indicate short-term sell pressure. Referencing earlier this year, when a whale sold 3,000 ETH at once, the price immediately dropped by 8% — will it repeat this time?

How should retail investors "dance on the knife's edge"?

The current market is like a pressure cooker; the pressure gauge is maxed out, just waiting for the last "hiss" of release. Two strategies for you to choose from:

Aggressive: Gamble at the boundary with stop-loss

  • Short at $4380: Stop-loss set at $4420 (break of previous high), target $4280, risk-reward ratio 3:1 (make $3 lose $1);

  • Long at $4280: Stop-loss at $4240 (break of previous low), target $4380, risk-reward ratio 4:1 (make $4 lose $1).
    Key Reminder: Don't let a single position exceed 5% of total funds, and absolutely don't open positions on both sides (otherwise, you might get hit from both sides)!

Conservative: Follow the breakthrough strategy

  • Break above $4420: Market price chase long, target $4560→$4900, stop-loss $4350;

  • Break below $4240: Go short, target $3995→$3800, stop loss $4300.
    Core Logic: After trend confirmation, there is a larger premium space. Although the cost price may differ by a few dozen dollars, the certainty is higher (suitable for beginners who are afraid of "guessing the top and bottom").

The foundation of the bull market is still there, but don't be a "bag holder".

In the long term, the bull market logic for ETH hasn't changed — the exchange inventory has dropped to 14.88 million (a 9-year low), down 62% from the 2021 peak, indicating the market is shifting from "speculative trading" to "long-term holding". Referring to the trend after Bitcoin's halving in 2020, as long as institutional ETF funds flow back (with a total inflow of $5.4 billion this month), the scenario of reaching $5000-$6000 by the end of the year remains valid.

But short-term vigilance is necessary: the total open contracts for ETH futures across the network have reached $60.8 billion, with $2.1 billion in short positions concentrated in the $4380-$4400 range — once broken, a short squeeze could trigger a "violent surge"; but if it breaks below $4280, the bullish stop-loss orders will fall like dominoes.

Finally, here's a piece of advice: the current market is like a "tightrope walking" performance; $4380 is the center of the wire, and $4280 is the safety net on both sides. You can choose to dance on the wire, but don't forget to tie the "safety rope" of stop-loss!

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