Did I guess right again? It seems so.
Today many people asked me how the market is and how it will go next, leaving me completely bewildered. The reason is that a chat record of mine from yesterday almost perfectly predicted last night's trend: first a plunge, then a rebound, followed by another plunge. But I really was just going by my feeling; I didn't even notice that there was data to be released last night.
Is ETH being manipulated by group friends? Such respect.
Looking back at last night's ETH candlestick chart, it seems like I drew it. Group friends made money listening to my nonsense because they thought my analysis was based on trends, techniques, news, market conditions, and indicators, but I didn't make any money. Why? Because only I know I was just guessing.
Is inflation repeating again? This is really frustrating.
Given the circumstances, let's analyze last night's data. Last night, the U.S. July PPI year-on-year was announced, with a previous value of 2.4 and an expectation of 2.5, but it came out at 3.3. What does this roughly mean? Let me explain.
The PPI year-on-year data can reflect the inflation situation; the larger the number, the more severe the inflation. This means that U.S. inflation is currently worse than expected. When inflation is severe, what should theoretically happen? Interest rates should be raised. Of course, under the current circumstances, raising interest rates is definitely not possible, but it will affect the frequency, values, and expectations of interest rate cuts.
After the market heard this news, it quickly plummeted because the expectations for a rate cut in September were hit hard. At the same time, I looked at a certain platform, and the probability of not cutting rates in September increased by 10%. Let me tell you, don't just rely on prediction platforms; you should look at real-money platforms. This is the most genuine feedback and expectation from everyone.
So is it really that there won't be a rate cut in September? Not necessarily.
I believe there is a high probability that there will still be a rate cut in September because under Trump's high pressure, Powell may not be able to withstand it. Moreover, Trump has already secured many positions at the Federal Reserve, and more and more people are supporting rate cuts. Powell alone cannot completely turn the situation around.