❌ Whale «Machi Big Brother» liquidates all longs — $33.8 million
The main player closed all longs, securing a profit of $33.8 million. This mass exit hit the trend, and assets that were previously rising actively are now suffering declines. Low volumes during breakout attempts caused a massive sell-off.
Value: high sales by large players — a classic signal for a potential local reversal.
❌ Liquidations of traders — over $1 billion in losses
BTC sharply fell from over $121,000 to < $118,000. Over 200,000 traders lost positions; liquidation volume approaches $1 billion.
The decline triggered a chain reaction: assets are overvalued, the pressure from "stops" activated a chain of sales.
❌ Overvalued growth? — Bitcoin signals a potential drop to $110,000
Technical indicators (fair value gaps, loss of momentum) indicate the beginning of a correction. The potential movement is towards $110,000 before trend recovery.
That is — an overheated asset must transition to probing or corrective mode.
❌ Outflow of institutions/traders from the U.S. — drop in support
Institutional selling is explained by the negative Coinbase Premium Gap, an indicator showing outflow of U.S. capital. After strong annual growth (plus 102%), many traders are taking profits: a large number of long liquidations is one reason for the reversal.
This is a technical, yet logical "pullback" after a sharp rally.
❌ Economists' forecasts — a possible "terrible" crypto crash
Macroeconomic analysts note the risk of a crisis in the crypto market due to overvaluation. While profits may be possible, this could resemble a "big burst of the price bubble."
This creates a psychological foundation for investors: expectations of a correction are rising, especially after ATH.
❌ U.S. PPI (Producer Price Index) +3.3% y/y — steel and inflation pressure
PPI for July rose by 3.3%, exceeding expectations (2.5%). This is a signal of a powerful inflation wave. It pressures the Fed rate, increases borrowing costs. Historically, this is negative for risky assets, including crypto.
As a result, appetite weakens, assets are "deflating."
UPD. Finance Minister Scott Bessent stated in an interview with Fox Business that the country does not plan to buy cryptocurrency for state reserves.
According to him, the government intends to use only confiscated digital assets, which he estimated at $15–20 billion. They also said they would not sell them.
He also noted that the U.S. will continue to hold gold as reserves and questioned whether U.S. gold and currency reserves should be revalued.
In March 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — a national reserve of bitcoin. His order also established the so-called United States Digital Asset Stockpile — a fund for storing other digital assets confiscated by the authorities.
According to Arkham, U.S. government-controlled wallets hold over $24 billion in cryptocurrencies, nearly all of which is concentrated in 198,000 bitcoins.
The idea of potentially purchasing cryptocurrency for reserves comes from a bill to create a state crypto reserve authored by Wyoming state senator Cynthia Lummis, which proposes annual purchases of up to 200,000 BTC and reaching a volume of 1 million bitcoins over five years. President Donald Trump has never publicly commented on her initiative.
In the same interview, Bessent emphasized that he did not call for a 1.5 percentage point rate cut by the Fed, but suggested the possibility of starting a rate-cutting cycle with a 25 basis point step followed by acceleration. He added that he sees room for a series of rate cuts.
Almost simultaneously with his statements, the July producer inflation report was published. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding analysts' forecasts (2.5%) and reaching a peak since February.
PPI reflects how prices for goods and services change at the producer level. This index is considered a leading indicator of inflation, as rising costs for businesses often lead to higher prices for consumers.
The crypto market is traditionally sensitive to inflation data, as they shape expectations for the Fed's key rate. Rising inflationary pressure reduces expectations for easing monetary policy and exerts pressure on risky assets.
Shortly after the release of the interview and the publication of macro data, the crypto market corrected. Bitcoin fell below $120,000, Ethereum — below $4,600.
What happened?
Surge in local sales (whale + liquidations) caused a collapse, forcing the system to correct.
Technical signals — RSI, gap, MACD, Fibonacci — confirm fatigue and the need for re-support.
Inflation dynamics and fears of overheating (according to macro experts) form the foundation for a short-term sell-off.