Bitcoin strongly broke through $124,400 in the early hours today, setting a new historical record, surpassing the previous high in July. The crypto market strengthened across the board, with Ethereum also reaching a new high since 2021, while the U.S. Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit closing records.

This round of increase is not just a retail frenzy but a result of multiple resonances among institutions, policies, and market sentiment.

1️⃣ Expectations for rate cuts accelerate, with funds flowing into risk assets.

  • The latest U.S. CPI meets expectations, reinforcing bets on interest rate cuts in September.

  • Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the Federal Reserve should cut rates by 150-175 basis points, with a possible direct cut of 50 basis points in September.

  • Goldman Sachs expects rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December this year, with two more cuts in 2026.

Interest rate cuts mean lower U.S. Treasury yields, causing funds to naturally seek higher returns—thus attracting capital to high-volatility assets like Bitcoin.

2️⃣ The 'convergence of coins and stocks' effect amplifies upward momentum.

  • U.S. stocks and the crypto market are rising in sync, with a comprehensive recovery in risk appetite.

  • The Trump administration's crypto-friendly policies, combined with institutional entry, are gradually integrating digital assets into traditional financial asset allocation systems.

  • Recently popular 'new stocks in the crypto circle' Bullish had a peak surge of nearly 200%, igniting sector enthusiasm; Circle also delivered impressive financial results, with USDC circulation increasing by 90% year-on-year.

3️⃣ The 'hoarding of coins' trend among enterprises and institutions.

  • Companies like MicroStrategy are leading listed companies to establish crypto treasury reserves, with the top five institutions holding a total of over 770,000 BTC.

  • The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $6 billion in July, with a consecutive net inflow of $557 million for seven days at the beginning of August.

  • Unlike the previous retail-led market, this round of increase shows obvious institutional characteristics, with ETFs becoming a stable funding engine.

4️⃣ Favorable policies boost significant new funding.

  • Trump's executive order allows 401(k) retirement funds to invest in crypto assets, managing $9 trillion; even a 2% allocation would mean an additional $170 billion in funding.

  • (GENIUS Act) requires stablecoin issuers to use government bonds as collateral, leading to a $9.1 billion surge in stablecoin market value in 23 days, surpassing $270 billion. The increase in stablecoin demand has also indirectly become an important source of buying pressure for Bitcoin.

📈 Market Outlook: Is the surge just the beginning?

  • Technical Analysis: If a successful breakout occurs above $125,000, the target may point to $150,000 (IG Analysis).

  • Institutional Perspective: ETF inflows, corporate purchases, and sovereign fund participation have made the demand base for this round more solid (DYOR).

  • Macroeconomic View: The U.S. debt has hit a new high, inflation concerns are rising, and Bitcoin's scarcity may push it above $132,000 (Real Vision).

  • On-chain Data: The profit-loss ratio is not overheated, spot demand is strong, but short-term high leverage and resistance levels may trigger severe volatility (CryptoQuant).

Overall, the structure of this bull market remains solid, with a mid-term upward trend, but short-term volatility is increasing; a breakout of key resistance may lead to a larger-scale market.