Although Bitcoin has reached a new historical high, professional indicators show that this bull market is far from a frenzied stage. According to the latest data from CryptoQuant analysts, the Bitcoin BPT indicator remains at a moderate level of 2.56, well below the local peak of 3.57. What does this mean? The current market is in a 'warm but not hot' healthy state.
This bull market has three notable characteristics:
First, the price is firmly above the 4-year moving average and has broken through the upper band of +2σ. From a technical perspective, this is a typical confirmation signal of a bull market, indicating that the upward trend is supported in the long term.
Second, the BPT indicator is in a moderate range, indicating that market sentiment has not yet overheated. Compared to the madness at previous bull market peaks, current investors are clearly more rational. This 'slow bull' trend often lasts longer.
Third, the greatest risk comes from normal pullbacks within an upward trend. It is important to be cautious when the BPT indicator breaks above 3.0, as this may indicate that the market is entering an overheated phase, at which point one should be prepared for significant volatility.
The advice for investors is clear: when the BPT indicator remains below 3.0, one can continue to maintain a bullish mindset, but must manage positions carefully. Focus on the support strength of the 4-year moving average; as long as this long-term trend line is not broken, the bullish pattern will not change. Remember, a warm bull market is more sustainable and easier to grasp than a frenzied bull market.